Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study
Alexandra B.Hogana, Patricia T.Campbell b c , Christopher C. Blythdef, Faye J. Lime, Parveen Fathimae, Stephanie Davisa, Hannah C. Mooree, Kathryn Glassa. Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study. Vaccine. 2017 Oct 27;35(45):6172-6179. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043. Epub 2017 Sep 28.
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory morbidity and one of the main causes of hospitalisation in young children. While there is currently no licensed vaccine for RSV, a vaccine candidate for pregnant women is undergoing phase 3 trials. We developed a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission, validated using linked laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisation records for metropolitan Western Australia. We adapted the model to incorporate a maternal RSV vaccine, and estimated the expected reduction in RSV hospitalisations arising from such a program. The introduction of a vaccine was estimated to reduce RSV hospitalisations in Western Australia by 6–37% for 0–2 month old children, and 30–46% for 3–5 month old children, for a range of vaccine effectiveness levels. Our model shows that, provided a vaccine is demonstrated to extend protection against RSV disease beyond the first three months of life, a policy using a maternal RSV vaccine could be effective in reducing RSV hospitalisations in children up to six months of age, meeting the objective of a maternal vaccine in delaying an infant’s first RSV infection to an age at which severe disease is less likely.
a Research School of Population Health, The Australian National University, 62 Mills Rd, The Australian National University, Acton ACT 2601, Australia
b Doherty Epidemiology, University of Melbourne at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Level 5, 792 Elizabeth St, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
c Infection and Immunity, Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Royal Children’s Hospital, Flemington Rd, Parkville 3052, Victoria, Australia
d School of Medicine, University of Western Australia, Princess Margaret Hospital for Children, Roberts Rd, Subiaco, Perth, WA 6008, Australia
e Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, The University of Western Australia, 100 Roberts Rd, Subiaco, Perth, WA 6008, Australia
f Department of Infectious Disease and PathWest Department of Microbiology, Princess Margaret Hospital for Children, Roberts Rd, Subiaco, WA 6008, Australia