Journal Articles

Sequential infection experiments for quantifying innate and adaptive immunity during influenza infection

23/11/2018

Ada W. C. Yan, Sophie G. Zaloumis, Julie A. Simpson, James M. McCaw. Sequential infection experiments for quantifying innate and adaptive immunity during influenza infection. arXiv:1709.02145 

Investigation of group A Streptococcus immune responses in an endemic setting, with a particular focus on J8

23/11/2018

Patricia Campbell, Hannah Frost, Pierre R. Smeesters, Joseph Kado, Michael F.Good, Michael Batzloff, Nicholas Geard, Jodie McVernon, Andrew Steer. Investigation of group A Streptococcus immune responses in an endemic setting, with a particular focus on J8. Volume 36, Issue 50, 29 November 2018, Pages 7618-7624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.10.091

The Importance of Heterogeneity to the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis

01/11/2018

James M Trauer, Peter J Dodd, M Gabriela M Gomes, Gabriela B Gomez, Rein MGJ Houben, Emma S McBryde, Yayehirad A Melsew, Nicolas A Menzies, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Sourya Shrestha, David W Dowdy. The Importance of Heterogeneity to the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis. Clinical infectious diseases https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-018-3388-y

Treatment for pharyngeal gonorrhoea under threat

01/11/2018

David G Regan, Ben B Hui, James G Wood, Helen Fifer, Monica M Lahra, David M Whiley. Treatment for pharyngeal gonorrhoea under threat. Lancet,Volume 18, Issue 11, P1175-1177, November 01, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30610-8

Designing group dose-response studies in the presence of transmission

23/10/2018

David J.Price a,b , Nigel G. Bean c,d , Joshua V. Ross c,d , Jonathan Tuke c,d. Designing group dose-response studies in the presence of transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, Volume 304,October 2018, Pages 62-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.07.007 .

An induced natural selection heuristic for finding optimal Bayesian experimental designs

22/10/2018

David J.Price a,b , Nigel G. Bean c,d , Joshua V. Ross c,d , Jonathan Tuke c,dAn induced natural selection heuristic for finding optimal Bayesian experimental designs. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Volume 126,October 2018, Pages 112-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2018.04.011

Methods used in the spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology: a systematic review

18/10/2018

Debebe Shaweno, Malancha Karmakar, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Romain Ragonnet, Archie CA Clements, James M. Trauer, Justin T. Denholm and Emma S. McBryde. Methods used in the spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology: a systematic review. BMC Medicine 2018 16:193. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1178-4

Modelling the decline and future of hepatitis A transmission in Australia

13/10/2018

Jayasundara, D. , Hui, B. B., Regan, D. G., Heywood, A. E., MacIntyre, C. R. and Wood, J. G. Modelling the decline and future of hepatitis A transmission in Australia. J Viral Hepat. 13 October 2018. doi:10.1111/jvh.13018

Retrospective cost-effectiveness of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination program in Australia

08/10/2018

C.Chen a, P. Beutels b, J. Wood a, R. Menzies a, C.R. MacIntyre a, P. McIntyre c, A.T. Newall aRetrospective cost-effectiveness of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination program in Australia. Vaccine,Volume 36, Issue 42, 8 October 2018, Pages 6307-6313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.08.084.

In silico investigation of the decline in clinical efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies due to increasing artemisinin and partner drug resistance

23/09/2018

Sophie G. Zaloumis, Pengxing Cao, Saber Dini, Miles P. Davenport, Deborah Cromer, David S. Khoury, Freya J.I. Fowkes, James M. McCaw,Julie A. Simpson. In silico investigation of the decline in clinical efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies due to increasing artemisinin and partner drug resistance. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy Sep 2018, AAC.01292-18; DOI: 10.1128/AAC.01292-18

The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities

23/09/2018

Ada W.C.Yan a,b , Andrew J. Black c , James M. McCaw b,d,e , Nicolas Rebuli c , Joshua V. Ross c , Annalisa J. Swan a , Roslyn I. Hickson aThe distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, Volume 303, September 2018, Pages 139-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.07.004

Characterization of Influenza B Virus Variants with Reduced Neuraminidase Inhibitor Susceptibility

10/09/2018

R. Farrukee, A. E. Zarebski, J. M. McCaw, J. D. Bloom, P. C. Reading, A. C. Hurt. Characterization of Influenza B Virus Variants with Reduced Neuraminidase Inhibitor Susceptibility. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy Oct 2018, 62 (11) e01081-18; DOI: 10.1128/AAC.01081-18

Description of social contacts among student cases of pandemic influenza during the containment phase, Melbourne, Australia, 2009

09/09/2018

Caroline van Gemert, Emma S McBryde, Isabel Bergeri, Rachel Sacks-Davis, Hassan Vally, Tim Spelman, Brett Sutton, Margaret Hellard. Description of social contacts among student cases of pandemic influenza during the containment phase, Melbourne, Australia, 2009.Western Pac Surveill Response J. 2018 Sep;9(5). doi:10.5365/wpsar.2018.9.5.003

Cytokine biomarkers for the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection and disease in adults in a low prevalence setting

29/08/2018

Vanessa Clifford, Marc Tebruegge, Christel Zufferey, Susie Germano, Ben Forbes, Lucy Cosentino, Elizabeth Matchett, Emma McBryde, Damon Eisen, Roy Robins-Browne, Alan Street, Justin Denholm, Nigel Curtis. Cytokine biomarkers for the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection and disease in adults in a low prevalence setting. Tuberculosis, 25 August 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tube.2018.08.011

A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics

28/08/2018

Roberts, M.G., Hickson, R.I., McCaw, J.M. et al. A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics. J. Math. Biol. (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-018-1285-z

The Indo‐Papuan conduit: a biosecurity challenge for Northern Australia

08/08/2018

Paul F. Horwood , Emma S. McBryde , Dunstan Peniyamina , Scott A. Ritchie. The Indo‐Papuan conduit: a biosecurity challenge for Northern Australia. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 42: 434-436. doi:10.1111/1753-6405.12808

Scabies and risk of skin sores in remote Australian Aboriginal communities: A self-controlled case series study

25/07/2018

Phyo Thu Zar Aung1 , Will Cuningham1,2, Kerry Hwang3 , Ross M. Andrews2,4, Jonathan R. Carpetis5 , Therese Kearns2 , Danielle Clucas6 , Jodie McVernon1,3,7, Julie Ann Simpson3 , Steven Y.C. Tong2,8, Patricia Therese Campbell1,7Scabies and risk of skin sores in remote Australian Aboriginal communities: A self-controlled case series study. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2018, 12(7):e0006668.

Measles control in Australia – threats, opportunities and future needs

16/07/2018

C. Raina MacIntyre, Elizabeth Kpozehouen, Mohana Kunasekaran, Kathleen Harriman, Stephen Conaty, Alexander Rosewell, Julian Druce, Nicolee Martin, Anita E. Heywood, Heather F. Gidding, James Wood, Sonya Nicholl. Measles control in Australia – threats, opportunities and future needs. Vaccine,Volume 36, Issue 30, 16 July 2018, Pages 4393-4398.. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.06.022

Appropriate comparisons of tuberculosis latency structures with empiric data

01/07/2018

Denholm JT, McBryde ES, Eisen D, Street A, Matchett E, Chen C, Shultz TR, Biggs B, Leder K. Appropriate comparisons of tuberculosis latency structures with empiric data. The Lancet, VOLUME 18, ISSUE 7, P720-721, JULY 01, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30339-6

The epidemiology of tuberculosis in the rural Balimo region of Papua New Guinea

19/06/2018

Tanya Diefenbach-Elstob, Patricia Graves, Robert Dowi, Bisato Gula, David Plummer, Emma McBryde, Daniel Pelowa, Peter Siba, William Pomat and Jeffrey Warner. The epidemiology of tuberculosis in the rural Balimo region of Papua New Guinea. 19 June 2018. https://doi.org/10.1111/tmi.13118

Australian rubella serosurvey 2012–2013: On track for elimination?

29/05/2018

Edirisuriya, C., Beard, F.H., Hendry, A.J., Dey, A., Gidding, H.F., Hueston, L., Dwyer, D.E., Wood, J.G., Macartney, K.K., McIntyre, P.B. Australian rubella serosurvey 2012–2013: On track for elimination? (2018) Vaccine, 36 (20), pp. 2794-2798.  DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.03.086

The influence of incomplete case ascertainment on measures of vaccine efficacy

17/05/2018

YueWu a, Julie A. Marsh a,b , Emma S. McBryde c , Thomas L. Snelling a,d,e,fThe influence of incomplete case ascertainment on measures of vaccine efficacy. Vaccine, Volume 36, Issue 21, 17 May 2018, Pages 2946-2952, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.04.046

Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia

08/05/2018

Lydeamore MJ1,2, Campbell PT2,3, Cuningham W3, Andrews RM4,5, Kearns T4, Clucas D6, Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay R4, Carapetis J7, Tong SYC 5,8, McCaw JM1, McVernon J2,3,9Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia 2018 May 8:1-8. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268818001061

Steps to solving the infant biometric problem with ridge-based biometrics

18/04/2018

Johannes Kotzerke1 , Stephen A. Davis1, Jodie McVernon2, Kathy J. Horadam1 . Steps to solving the infant biometric problem with ridge-based biometrics. (February 2018) IET Biometrics. doi: 10.1049/iet-bmt.2017.0282.

Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units

26/03/2018

Kinyanjui T, Middleton J, Guttel S, Cassell J, Ross J, House T (2018) Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units. PLoS Comput Biol 14(3): e1006046. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006046

Modelling low pathogenic avian influenza introduction into the commercial poultry industry

23/03/2018

Barnes, B & Glass, K. Modelling low pathogenic avian influenza introduction into the commercial poultry industry, Mathematical Biosciences. vol. 300, pp. 112-121, 2018.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.03.021

Reducing length of stay to improve Clostridium difficile-related health outcomes

01/03/2018

Brain D.C., Barnett A.G., Yakob L., Clements A., Riley T.V., Halton K., Graves N. (2018) Reducing length of stay to improve Clostridium difficile-related health outcomes. Infection, Disease and Health. Published online ahead of print: DOI: 1016/j.idh.2018.01.001

Prolonged persistence of clonally diverse CD38+HLA-DR+CD8+ T cells during fatal H7N9 disease

26/02/2018

Wang Z, Zhu L, Nguyen THO, Wan Y, Sant S, Quinones-Parra SM, Crawford J, Eltahla AA, Rizzetto S, Bull RA, Qiu C, Koutsakos M, Bridie Clemens E, Loh L, Zhu L, Chen T, Liu L, Cao P, Ren Y, Kedzierski L, Kotsimbos TC, McCaw JM, La Gruta NL, Turner SJ, Cheng AC, Luciani F, Zhang X, Doherty PC, Thomas PG, Xu J, Kedzierska K, Prolonged persistence of clonally diverse CD38+HLA-DR+CD8+ T cells during fatal H7N9 disease, Nature Communications 9: 824 (2018).  doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03243-7

Coupled, multi-strain epidemic models of mutating pathogens

20/02/2018

Meehan M, Cocks D, Trauer J and McBryde E (2018) Coupled, multi-strain epidemic models of mutating pathogens. Mathematical Biosciences, 296. pp. 82-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2017.12.006

Implications of asymptomatic carriers for infectious disease transmission and control

14/02/2018

Chisholm RH, Campbell PT, Wu Y, Tong SYC, McVernon J, Geard N (2018) Implications of asymptomatic carriers for infectious disease transmission and controlRoyal Society Open Science 5:172341. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.172341

Evidence for Viral Interference and Cross-reactive Protective Immunity Between Influenza B Virus Lineages

30/01/2018

Laurie KL, Horman W, Carolan LA, Chan KF, Layton D, Bean A, Vijaykrishna D, Reading P, McCaw JM, Barr IG , Evidence for viral interference and cross-reactive protective immunity between influenza B virus lineages, Journal of Infectious Diseases 217(4): 548–559 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix509

Risk factors for infectiousness of patients with tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

17/01/2018

Y.A. Melsew (a1) (a2)T.N. Doan (a3) (a4)M. Gambhir (a1)A.C. Cheng (a1) (a5)E. McBryde (a3) (a4) and J.M. Trauer (a1). Risk factors for infectiousness of patients with tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysisEpidemiology and Infection, 146(3), 345-353. doi:10.1017/S0950268817003041.

Optimally capturing latency dynamics in models of tuberculosis transmission

29/12/2017

Romain Ragonnet, James M.Trauer, Nick Scott, Michael T.Meehan, Justin T.Denholm, Emma S.McBryde. Optimally capturing latency dynamics in models of tuberculosis transmission. Epidemics,Volume 21, December 2017, Pages 39-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.002

Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration

27/12/2017

Robert Moss,1 James E. Fielding,2 Lucinda J. Franklin,3 Nicola Stephens,3 Jodie McVernon,1,2,4 Peter Dawson,5 James M. McCaw1,4,6Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2018 vol. 42 no. 1. https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12750

A Synthetic Population for Modelling the Dynamics of Infectious Disease Transmission in American Samoa

01/12/2017

Xu Z, Glass K, Lau C, Geard N, Graves P, Clements A (2017) A synthetic population for modelling the dynamics of infectious disease transmission in American SamoaScientific Reports 7:16725 doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17093-8

Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases

26/10/2017

Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases. Thiripura Vino 1 , Gurmeet R. Singh 2,3 , Belinda Davison 2 , Patricia T. Campbell 4,5 , Michael J. Lydeamore 4,5 , Andrew Robinson 1,6,7 , Jodie McVernon 5 , Steven Y.C. Tong 2,8 and Nicholas Geard9,10 . PeerJ October 2017 5:e3958; DOI 10.7717/peerj.3958

A Dynamic Stress Model Explains the Delayed Drug Effect in Artemisinin Treatment of Plasmodium falciparum

09/10/2017

Cao P, Klonis N, Zaloumis S, Dogovski C, Xie SC, Saralamba S, White LJ, Fowkes FJI, Tilley L, Simpson JA, McCaw JMA dynamic stress model explains the delayed drug effect in artemisinin treatment of Plasmodium falciparum, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 61(12): e00618–17 (2017). doi:10.1128/AAC.00618-17

Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study

28/09/2017

Alexandra B.Hogana, Patricia T.Campbell b c , Christopher C. Blythdef, Faye J. Lime, Parveen Fathimae,  Stephanie Davisa, Hannah C. Mooree, Kathryn Glassa. Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study. Vaccine. 2017 Oct 27;35(45):6172-6179. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043. Epub 2017 Sep 28.

Hybrid Markov chain models of S–I–R disease dynamics

14/09/2017

Hybrid Markov chain models of S–I–R disease dynamics. Nicholas P. Rebuli, N.G.Beanm J.V.Ross. Journal of Mathematical Biology September 2017, Volume 75 Issue 3, pp 52. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2735-8.

Modular programming for tuberculosis control, the “AuTuMN” platform

07/08/2017

James Trauer, Romain Ragonnet, Tan Nhut Doan and Emma McBryde. Modular programming for tuberculosis control, the “AuTuMN” platform. BMC Infectious Diseases BMC series 2017, 17:546. 7 August 2017. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2648-6

Is Australia prepared for the next pandemic?

14/04/2017

Is Australia prepared for the next pandemic? Jodie McVernon, Tania C Sorrell, Jenny Firman, Brendan Murphy and Sharon R Lewin. Med J Aust 2017; 206 (7): 284-286. || doi: 10.5694/mja16.01451

High rates of latent TB infection in contacts and the wider community in South India

12/04/2017

High rates of latent tuberculosis infection in contacts and the wider community in South India. P Narasimhan, CR MacIntyre, D Mathai, JG Wood. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (accepted, Feb 2017).

Wilkinson et al. Respond to “Latent Transition Analyses in Clinical Cohorts”

10/03/2017

Wilkinson et al. Respond to “Latent Transition Analyses in Clinical Cohorts”. Wilkinson AL, El-Hayek C, Fairley CK, Roth N, Tee BK, McBryde E, Hellard M, Stoové M. Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Mar 10:1-2. doi: 10.1093/aje/kww238.

Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in north-west Ethiopia

03/03/2017

Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in north-west Ethiopia. Kefyalew Addis Alene, Kerri Viney, Emma S. McBryde, Adino Tesfahun Tsegaye, Archie C. A. Clements. Tropical Medicine and International Health. First published: 6 January 2017. Volume 22, Issue 3 March 2017, pages 351–362. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12826

Mycobacteria-specific IL-1RA response as a potential correlate of treatment success in active and latent tuberculosis infection

19/02/2017

Mycobacteria-specific IL-1RA response as a potential correlate of treatment success in active and latent tuberculosis infection. Vanessa Clifford, Marc Tebruegge, Christel Zufferey, Susie Germano, Ben Forbes, Lucy Cosentino, Elizabeth Matchett, Emma McBryde, Damon Eisen, Roy Robins-Browne, Alan Street, Justin Denholm, Nigel Curtis.  Pathology 49 (Feb 2017): S59.

The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains

24/01/2017

The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. Emma S. McBryde, Michael T. Meehan, Tan N. Doan, Romain Ragonnet, Ben J. Marais, Vanina Guernier, James M. Trauer. International Journal of Infectious Diseases Vol 56, P 14-20. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2017.01.031

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

10/01/2017

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting. Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Moss R, Infectious Disease Modelling. (accepted 16 December 2016) doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2016.12.004

Is IPT more effective in high-burden settings? Modelling the effect of tuberculosis incidence on IPT impact

01/01/2017

Is IPT more effective in high-burden settings? Modelling the effect of tuberculosis incidence on IPT impact. Ragonnet, R, Trauer J,  McBryde E,  Houben R. M. G. J, Denholm, J, Handel A, Sumner, T. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Volume 21, Nr 1, 1 January 2017, pp. 60-66(7). doi:10.5588/ijtld.16.0297

Heterogeneity of distribution of tuberculosis in Sheka Zone, Ethiopia: drivers and temporal trends

01/01/2017

Heterogeneity of distribution of tuberculosis in Sheka Zone, Ethiopia: drivers and temporal trends. Shaweno, D, Shaweno, T, Trauer J.M, Denholm J, McBryde, E. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Volume 21, Number 1, 1 January 2017, pp. 79-85(7)

On the role of CD8+ T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection

02/12/2016

Pengxing Cao1,  Zhongfang Wang 2, 3,  Ada W. Yan1, Jodie McVernon 4, 6, Jianqing Xu2,  Jane M. Heffernan5,  Katherine Kedzierska3 and  James M. McCaw1, 4, 6*, 

On the role of CD8+ T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection. Front. Immunol. | doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2016.00611.

Modelling the effect of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan

18/11/2016

Modelling the effect of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. James M. Trauer, Jay Achar, Nargiza Parpieva, Atadjan Khamraev, Justin T. Denholm, Dennis Falzon, Ernesto Jaramillo, Anita Mesic, Philipp du Cros and Emma S. McBryde BMC Medicine2016 14:187. doi: 10.1186/s12916-016-0723-2. Published: 18 November 2016

Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program

13/11/2016

Patricia Therese Campbell1,2, Jodie McVernon1,2,3, Peter McIntyre4, and Nicholas Geard1,Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program. Clinical Infectious Diseases Volume 63, Issue suppl 4Pp. S213-S220, doi: 10.1093/cid/ciw520.

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host

08/11/2016

Ada W. C. Yana , Pengxing Caoa , Jane M. Heffernan b,c, Jodie McVernond,e,f, Kylie M. Quinn g,h, Nicole L. La Grutag,h, Karen L. Laurie i,j,g, James M. McCaw a,e,f.Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host. Journal of Theoretical Biology. Accepted 2016 Nov 8.

A comparison of Clostridium difficile ribotypes circulating in Australian hospitals and communities

02/11/2016

Furuya-Kanamori L1, Riley TV2,3, Paterson DL4, Foster NF2,3, Huber CA4, Hong S2, Harris-Brown T4, Robson J5, Clements AC6. A comparison of Clostridium difficile ribotypes circulating in Australian hospitals and communities. J Clin Microbiol 2016; Epub ahead of print. doi:10.1128/JCM.01779-16

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models

06/10/2016

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models. Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas A Menzies, Tom Sumner, Grace H Huynh, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde, Anna Vassall, Richard G White, et al. Lancet Glob Health 2016;4: e806–15 Published Online October 6, 2016. doi.org/10.1016/ S2214-109X(16)30199-1

Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems

27/09/2016

R. MOSS (a1), A. ZAREBSKI (a2), P. DAWSON (a3) and J. M. McCAW (a1) (a2) (a4).Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systemsEpidemiology and Infection, 145(1), 156-169. doi:10.1017/S0950268816002053. Published online: 27 September 2016

Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

23/09/2016

Robert Moss, Roslyn I. Hickson, Jodie McVernon, James M. McCaw, Krishna Hort, Jim Black, John R. Madden, Nhi H. Tran, Emma S. McBryde, Nicholas Geard. Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2016 Sep 23;DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005018

Community-Acquired Clostridium difficile Infection, Queensland, Australia

22/09/2016

   Furuya-Kanamori L, Yakob L, Riley TV, Paterson DL, Baker P, McKenzie SJ, Robson J, Clements AC. Community-acquired Clostridium difficile infections in Queensland, Australia. Emerg Infect Dis 2016; 22(9):1659-61.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2209.151115

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonisation in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: A prospective, repeated cross-sectional study

08/09/2016

Furuya-Kanamori L1, Clements AC2, Foster NF3, Huber CA4, Hong S5, Harris-Brown T4, Yakob L6, Paterson DL4, Riley TV3.Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonisation in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: A prospective, repeated cross-sectional study. Clin Microb Infect 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.cmi.2016.08.030

Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity

27/08/2016

Tiffany Leung a, Barry D. Hughes a, Federico Frascoli b, James M. McCaw a, c, d,Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunityJournal of Theoretical Biology 410, December 2016, 55-64.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.034

Efficacy of a trivalent influenza vaccine against seasonal strains and against 2009 pandemic H1N1: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

09/08/2016

McBride WJH, Abhayaratna WP, Barr I, Booy R, Carapetis J, Carson S, De Looze F, Ellis-Pegler R, Heron L, Karrasch J, Marshall H, McVernon J, Nolan T, Rawlinson W, Reid J, Richmond P, Shakib S, Basser RL, Hartel GF, Lai MH, Rockman S, Greenberg ME. Efficacy of a trivalent influenza vaccine against seasonal strains and against 2009 pandemic H1N1: a randomized placebo-controlled trial. Vaccine 34 (2016) 4991–4997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.08.038. 

A role of influenza exposure history in determining pandemic susceptibility and CD8+ T cell responses

25/05/2016

Quinones-Parra S, Clemens B, Wang Z, Croom H, Kedzierski L, McVernon J, Vijaykrishna D, Kedzierska K. A role of influenza exposure history in determining pandemic susceptibility and CD8+ T cell responses. Journal of Virology, August 2016 vol. 90 no. 15 6936-6947. doi:10.1128/JVI.00349-16 Abstract Novel influenza viruses often cause differential infection patterns across different age groups, an effect…

Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia

25/05/2016

Alexandra B. Hogan a, Robert S. Anderssen b, Stephanie Davis a, Hannah C. Moore c, Faye J. Lim c, Parveen Fathima c, Kathryn Glass a.Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia. Epidemics 16 (2016) 49–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.001 Abstract Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes respiratory illness in young children and is…

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea

19/05/2016

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. James M. Trauer  Justin T. Denholm  Saba Waseem, Romain Ragonnet, Emma S. McBryde. Am J Epidemiol (2016) 183 (12): 1138-1148. doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv323. Published: 19 May 2016

Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children

04/05/2016

Alexandra B. Hogan , Kathryn Glass, Hannah C. Moore, Robert S. AnderssenExploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children. Theoretical Population Biology, May 2016. doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003

Feasibiliy of Recruiting People who Inject Drugs into a Nurse-Led Model of Care Trial: The Tap Study

19/04/2016

Feasibiliy of Recruiting People who Inject Drugs into a Nurse-Led Model of Care Trial: The Tap Study. S. von Bibra, J.S. Doyle, P. Higgs, P. Dietze, P. Desmond, M. Stoove, E. McBryde, L. Burke, J. Lupi, M. Bryant, A.J. Thompson, M.E. Hellard. Journal of Hepatology Vol 64-2. doi: 10.1016/S0168-8278(16)01598-1

Hepatic Fibrosis Measured by Elastography among People who Inject Drugs with Chronic HCV in Community Settings: The Tap Study

16/04/2016

Hepatic Fibrosis Measured by Elastography among People who Inject Drugs with Chronic HCV in Community Settings: The Tap Study. J.S. Doyle, P. Dietze, P. Desmond, D.M. Iser, M. Stoove, E. McBryde, P. Higgs, M.E. Hellard, A.J. Thompson. 16 April 2016: Viral hepatitis: Hepatitis C – Clinical (therapy). Journal of Hepatology, 2016 Vol 64-2. doi: 10.1016/S0168-8278(16)01526-9

Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models

18/03/2016

McKinley, T.J., Ross, J.V., Deardon, R. and Cook, A.R. (2014) Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 71, 434-447. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2012.12.012

Successful control of Ebola Virus Disease: analysis of service based data from rural Sierra Leone

09/03/2016

Lokuge K, Caleo G, Greig J, Duncombe J, McWilliam N, Squire J, Lamin M, Wolz A, Kobinger G,de la Vega M-A, Gbabai O, Nabieu S, Lamin M, Kremer R, Danis K, Banks E, Glass K. (2016) Successful control of Ebola Virus Disease: analysis of service based data from rural Sierra Leone. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 10(3):e0004498. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004498

Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%?

19/02/2016

Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%? James M. Trauer, Nompilo Moyo, Ee-Laine Tay, Katie Dale, Romain Ragonnet, Emma S. McBryde, Justin T. Denholm. Chest. 2016;149(2):516-525. doi:10.1016/j.chest.2015.11.017

25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations and Clostridium difficile Infection: A Meta-Analysis.

23/12/2015

Furuya-Kanamori L, Wangdi K, Yakob L, McKenzie SJ, Doi SA, Clark J, Paterson DL, Riley TV, Clements AC. 25-Hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and Clostridium difficile infection – A meta-analysis. JPEN Parenter Enter 2015; Epub ahead of print.DOI:10.1177/0148607115623457

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization: epidemiology and clinical implications

14/11/2015

Furuya-Kanamori L, Marquess J, Yakob L, Riley TV, Paterson DL, Foster NF, Huber C, Clements AC. Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization – Epidemiology and Clinical Implications. BMC Infect Dis2015; 15:516.DOI:10.1186/s12879-015-1258-4

Immune responses to a recombinant, four-component, meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in adolescents: a phase III, randomized, multicentre, lot-to-lot consistency study.

22/09/2015

Perrett, K.P., McVernon, J., Richmond, P.C., Marshall, H., Nissen, M., August, A., Percell, S., Toneatto, D., Nolan, T.: Immune responses to a recombinant, four-component, meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in adolescents: a phase III, randomized, multicentre, lot-to-lot consistency study.Vaccine, 2015; 33(39):5217-24. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.06.103

Modelled mechanisms of hypervirulent Clostridium difficile ribotype 027 displacement of endemic strains

28/07/2015

Yakob L., Riley T.V., Paterson D.L., Marquess J., Soares Magalhaes R., Furuya Kanamori L.,Clements A.C.A. (2015) Modelled mechanisms of hypervirulent Clostridium difficile ribotype 027 displacement of endemic strains. Scientific Reports. 5:12666. doi:  10.1038/srep12666

On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population models

23/07/2015

Bean, N.G., Elliott, R.J., Eshragh, A. and Ross, J.V. On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population modelsJournal of Applied Probability 52, 457-472doi:10.1239/jap/1437658609

Targeting the Cell Stress Response of Plasmodium falciparum to Overcome Artemisinin Resistance

22/04/2015

Dogovski C, Xie SC, Burgio G, Bridgford J, Mok S, McCaw JM, Chotivanich K, Kenny S, Gnadig N, Straimer J, Bozdech Z, Fidock DA, Simpson JA, Dondorp AM, Foote S, Klonis N, Tilley L, Targeting the cell stress response of plasmodium falciparum to overcome artemisinin resistance, PLoS Biology 13(4): e1002132 (2015). doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1002132

Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy

25/02/2015

Campbell PT, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy, Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics 11(3): 669-678 (2015). doi:10.1080/21645515.2015.1011575.

Computation of epidemic final size distributions

21/02/2015

Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2015)Computation of epidemic final size distributions.Journal of Theoretical Biology 367, 159-165.  doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.11.029

Predicting localised measles outbreak potential in Australia

22/01/2015

Wood, J. G., Heywood, A. E., Menzies, R. I., McIntyre, P. B., & MacIntyre, C. R. (2015). Predicting localised measles outbreak potential in Australia. Vaccine, 33(9), 1176-1181. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.12.071

Optimizing Hospital Infection Control: The Role of Mathematical Modeling

16/01/2015

Doan, Tan N, Kong, David, Kirkpatrick, Carl MJ, McBryde, Emma S. Optimizing Hospital Infection Control: The Role of Mathematical ModelingInfection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 35 / Issue 12 / December 2014, pp 1521-1530. dx.doi.org/10.1086/678596

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

06/01/2015

Ali H, Cameron E, Drovandi CC, McCaw JM, Guy RJ, Middleton M, El -Hayek C, Hocking JS, Kaldor JM, Donovan B, Wilson DP, on behalf of the Australian chlamydia incidence estimation group, A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence,Sexually Transmitted InfectionsSexually Transmitted Infections 91: 513-519 (2015).doi:10.1136/sextrans-2014-051631

Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia

18/12/2014

Cope, R.C., Cassey, P., Hugo, G.J. and Ross, J.V. (2014) Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia. PLoS Curents Outbreaks 2014 Dec 10. Edition 1. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.aa0375fd48a92c7c9422aa543a88711f.

The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs

24/10/2014

Hellard, Margaret; Rolls, David A; Sacks-Davis, Rachel; Robins, Garry; Pattison, Philippa; Higgs, Peter; Aitken, Campbell; McBryde, Emma; The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs, Hepatology Vol 60, 1861-1870 (2014).

Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: a model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future

14/09/2014

Gao, Z., Wood, J. G., Gidding, H. F., Newall, A. T., Menzies, R. I., Wang, H., . . . MacIntyre, C. R. (2015). Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: A model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future. Epidemiology and Infection, 143(7), 1467-1476. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002222

A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj

14/07/2014

Gardner LM; Rey D; Heywood AE; Toms R; Wood J; Travis Waller S; Raina MacIntyre C, 2014, ‘A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj’, Risk Analysis: an international journal, vol. 34, no. 8, pp. 1391 – 1400, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12253

Eradication of hepatitis C infection: the importance of targeting people who inject drugs

24/12/2013

Hellard, Margaret, Doyle, Joseph S, Sacks-Davis, Rachel, Thompson, Alexander J,McBryde, Emma. Eradication of hepatitis C infection: the importance of targeting people who inject drugs. Hepatology 2014 Vol 59 nr 2. 366-369, DOI: 10.1002/hep.26623