Journal Articles

Profiling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission and the resulting disease burden in the five highest tuberculosis burden countries: a modelling study.

14/11/2019

Ragonnet R, Trauer JM, Geard N, Scott N, McBryde, ES. BMC Medicine (accepted 25 October 2019). Accepted 25th October, 2019

What can urban mobility data reveal about the spatial distribution of infection in a single city?

22/10/2019

Moss R, Naghizade E, Tomko M, Geard N BMC Public Health 19: 656, May 2019; What can urban mobility data reveal about the spatial distribution of infection in a single city? Background Infectious diseases spread through inherently spatial processes. Road and air traffic data have been used to model these processes at national and global…

Longitudinal analysis of group A Streptococcus emm types and emm clusters in a high prevalence setting reveals past infection does not prevent future infection

22/10/2019

Campbell PT, Tong SYC, Geard N, Davies MR, Worthing KA, Lacey JA, Smeesters PR, Batzloff MR, Kado J, Jenney AWJ, McVernon J, Steer AC. Journal of Infectious Diseases, accepted for publication 9th October 2019  

Inhibition of influenza A virus by human infant saliva

22/10/2019

Gilbertson B, Edenborough K, McVernon J, Brown LE. Viruses, 2019 Aug 20;11(8). pii: E766.  DOI: 10.3390/v11080766 Innate antiviral factors in saliva play a role in protection against respiratory infections. We tested the anti-influenza virus activities of saliva samples taken from human infants, 1-12 months old, with no history of prior exposure to influenza. In contrast to the inhibitory activity we observed in mouse and…

Perinatal risk factors associated with skin infection hospitalization in Western Australian Aboriginal and Non-Aboriginal children

22/10/2019

Barnes R, Bowen AC, Walker R, Tong SYC, McVernon J, Campbell PT, Fathima P, de Klerk NH, Wu Y, Blyth CC, Carapetis JR, Moore HC. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 2019 Sep;33(5):374-383. Epub 2019 Sep 12, 10.1111/ppe.12573 BACKGROUND: Hospitalisation with skin infection in Western Australian (WA) Aboriginal children is common, with the highest rates in infants and children from remote WA. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to quantify infant,…

Optimal Timing of Influenza Vaccine during Pregnancy: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

22/10/2019

Cuningham W, Geard N, Fielding JE, Braat S, Madhi SA, Nunes MC, Christian LM, Lin S-Y, Lee C-N, Yamaguchi K, Bisgaard H, Chawes B, Chao A-S, Blanchard-Rohner G, Schlaudecker EP, Fisher BM, McVernon J, Moss R. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses, 2019 Sep;13(5):438-452. Epub 2019 Jun 5; 10.1111/irv.12649 BACKGROUND: Pregnant women have an elevated risk…

Prior exposure to immunogenic peptides found in human influenza A viruses may influence the age distribution of cases with avian influenza H5N1 and H7N9 virus infections.

22/10/2019

Komadina N, Sullivan SG, Kedzierska K, Quinones-Parra SM, Leder K, McVernon J. Epidemiology and Infection, 2019: Jan147:e213; 10.1017/S095026881900102X The epidemiology of H5N1 and H7N9 avian viruses of humans infected in China differs despite both viruses being avian reassortants that have inherited six internal genes from a common ancestor, H9N2. The median age of infected populations is substantially younger for H5N1 virus (26 years) compared with H7N9 virus (63 years). Population susceptibility to infection…

High burden of infectious disease and antibiotic use in early life in Australian Aboriginal communities

22/10/2019

Cuningham W, McVernon J, Lydeamore MJ, Andrews RM, Carapaetis J, Kearns T, Clucas D, Dhurrkay RG, Tong SYC, Campbell PT. Australia and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 2019; 43(2):149-155; 10.1111/1753-6405.12876 OBJECTIVE: To quantify the childhood infectious disease burden and antibiotic use in the Northern Territory’s East Arnhem region through synthesis and analysis of historical data resources. METHODS: We combined primary…

Advancing the ethical use of digital data in research: challenges and strategies to promote ethical practice

22/10/2019

Clark K, Duckham, M, Guillemin M, Hunter A, McVernon J, OKeefe C, Pitkin C, Prawer S, Sinnott R, Warr D and Waycott J. Ethics and Information Technology 2019: 21(1): 59-73; https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-018-9490-4 The proliferation of digital data and internet-based research technologies is transforming the research landscape, and researchers and research ethics communities are struggling to respond…

Quantity or quality? Assessing relationships between perceived social connectedness and recorded encounters

22/10/2019

Dias AE, Geard N, Campbell PT, Warr D, McVernon J. PLoS ONE, 2018; 13(11):e0208083; 0.1371/journal.pone.0208083 INTRODUCTION: Higher levels of social connectedness are associated with better physical and mental health outcomes, but measures of connectedness are often study specific. Prior research has distinguished between perceived and received (quantifiable) measures of social connectedness, with differing impacts on health, sometimes mediated by place of residence. This analysis…

Treatment outcomes of patients with multidrug-resistant and extensively drug resistant tuberculosis in Hunan Province, China.

22/10/2019

Alene KA, Yi H, Viney K, McBryde ES, Yang K, Bai L, Gray DJ, Clements AC, Xu Z. 2017; 17: 675. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2662-8 BACKGROUND: The worldwide emergence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug–resistant tuberculosis (XDR-TB) has posed additional challenges for global tuberculosis (TB) control efforts, as limited treatment options are available and treatment outcomes are often sub-optimal. This study determined treatment outcomes among a cohort of MDR-TB and XDR-TB patients in Hunan Province, China, and identified factors…

Spatial clustering of notified tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A nationwide study

22/10/2019

Alene KA, Clements ACA PLoS ONE. 2019; 14(8): e0221027. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0221027 BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major health problem worldwide and in Ethiopia. This study aimed to investigate the spatial distributions of notified TB over the whole territory of Ethiopia and to quantify the role of health care access, environmental, socio-demographic, and behavioural factors associated with the clustering of TB. METHODS: A spatial analysis was conducted using national TB data…

Increasing incidence of nontyphoidal Salmonella infections in Queensland, Australia, 2007-2016

22/10/2019

Parisi A, Crump JA, Stafford R, Glass K, Howden BP, Kirk MD PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases (2019) 13(3): e0007187; 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007187 Nontyphoidal Salmonella is a major contributor to the global burden of foodborne disease, with invasive infections contributing substantially to illnesses and deaths. We analyzed notifiable disease surveillance data for invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella disease (iNTS) in Queensland, Australia. We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios…

Modelling the impact of biosecurity practices on the risk of high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Australian commercial chicken farms

22/10/2019

Glass K, Barnes B, Scott A, Toribio J-A, Moloney B, Singh M, Hernandez-Jover M Prev Vet Med (2019) 165:8-14; 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.02.002 As of 2018, Australia has experienced seven outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry since 1976, all of which involved chickens. There is concern that increases in free-range farming could heighten HPAI outbreak risk due to the potential for greater contact…

Modelling diverse sources of Clostridium difficile in the community: importance of animals, infants and asymptomatic carriers

22/10/2019

McLure A, Clements ACA, Kirk MD, Glass K Epidemiol Infect (2019) e152, 1–9; 10.1017/S0950268819000384 Clostridium difficile infections (CDIs) affect patients in hospitals and in the community, but the relative importance of transmission in each setting is unknown. We developed a mathematical model of C. difficile transmission in a hospital and surrounding community that included infants, adults and transmission from animal reservoirs. We assessed the role…

Modelling high pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the commercial poultry industry.

22/10/2019

Barnes B, Scott A, Hernandez-Jover M, Toribio J-A, Moloney B, Glass K Theoretical Population Biology (2019) 126:59-71; 10.1016/j.tpb.2019.02.004 Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are devastating to poultry industries and pose a risk to human health. There is concern that demand for free-range poultry products could increase the number of HPAI outbreaks by increasing the potential for low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) introduction to commercial flocks. We formulate stochastic mathematical models…

Seasonality and community interventions in a mathematical model of Clostridium difficile

22/10/2019

McLure A, Clements ACA, Kirk MD, Glass K J. Hospital Infection. doi: 10.1016/j.jhin.2019.03.001 (2019); 10.1016/j.jhin.2019.03.001 BACKGROUND: Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is the leading cause of antibiotic-associated diarrhoea with peak incidence in late winter or early autumn. Although CDI is commonly associated with hospitals, community transmission is important. AIM: To explore potential drivers of CDI seasonality and the effect of community-based interventions to reduce transmission….

Routine and pulse vaccination for Lassa virus could reduce high levels of endemic disease: a mathematical modelling study

22/10/2019

Davies J, Lokuge K, Glass K Vaccine 37(26):3451-3456, 2019; 10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.05.010 Lassa fever is an acute viral illness caused by Lassa virus (LASV), a rodent-borne pathogen. LASV is endemic to much of Sub-Saharan West Africa, where seasonal outbreaks cause significant morbidity and mortality. Increased global awareness of LASV has led to development of improved diagnostic tests, treatments and vaccines. As vaccine candidates…

Source attribution of Salmonella in macadamia nuts to animal and environmental reservoirs in Queensland, Australia

22/10/2019

Munck N, Smith J, Bates J, Glass K, Hald T, Kirk MD Foodborne Pathogens and Disease (in press)

Infection-acquired versus vaccine-acquired immunity in an SIRWS model

22/10/2019

Leung T, Campbell PT, Hughes BD, Frascoli F, McCaw JM Infectious Disease Modelling 3: 118–135 (2018) [doi] In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be subtle, involving a complex relationship between the duration of immunity—acquired either through natural infection or vaccination—and subsequent boosting of immunity through asymptomatic re-exposure. We present and analyse…

Within-host modelling of blood-stage malaria

22/10/2019

Khoury DS, Aogo R, Randriafanomezantsoa-Radohery G, McCaw JM, Simpson JA, McCarthy JS, Haque A, Cromer D, Davenport MP Immunological Reviews 285: 168–193 (2018) [doi] Malaria infection continues to be a major health problem worldwide and drug resistance in the major human parasite species, Plasmodium falciparum, is increasing in South East Asia. Control measures including novel drugs…

Accounting for healthcare-seeking behaviours and testing practices in real-time influenza forecasts

22/10/2019

Moss R, Zarebski AE, Carlson SJ, McCaw JM Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 4(1): 12 (2019) [doi] For diseases such as influenza, where the majority of infected persons experience mild (if any) symptoms, surveillance systems are sensitive to changes in healthcare-seeking and clinical decision-making behaviours. This presents a challenge when trying to interpret surveillance data in near-real-time (e.g., to provide…

Anatomy of a seasonal influenza epidemic forecast

22/10/2019

Moss R, Zarebski AE, Dawson P, Franklin LJ, Birrell FA, McCaw JM Communicable Diseases Intelligence 43: 1–14 (2019)[doi] Bayesian methods have been used to predict the timing of infectious disease epidemics in various settings and for many infectious diseases, including seasonal influenza. But integrating these techniques into public health practice remains an ongoing challenge, and requires close…

Modelling the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes in humans during malaria infection

22/10/2019

Pengxing Cao, Katharine A Collins, Sophie Zaloumis, Thanaporn Wattanakul, Joel Tarning, Julie A Simpson, James S McCarthy, James M McCaw Accepted in eLife on Oct 15, 2019. Pre-publication.  

Mathematical analysis of a Wolbachia invasive model with imperfect maternal transmission and loss of Wolbachia infection

22/10/2019

Adeshina I. Adekunle, Michael T. Meehan, Emma S. McBryde Infectious Disease Modelling, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2019.10.001. Arboviral infections, especially dengue, continue to cause significant health burden in their endemic regions. One of the strategies to tackle these infections is to replace the main vector agent, Ae. aegypti, with the ones incapable of transmitting the virus. Wolbachia, an intracellular…

Profiles of tuberculosis disease activation among contacts of patients with tuberculosis

21/10/2019

Yayehirad A Melsew, Allen C Cheng, Emma S McBryde, Justin T Denholm, EeLaine Tay, Romain Ragonnet, James M Trauer European Respiratory Journal 2019; Profiles of tuberculosis disease activation among contacts of patients with tuberculosis The risk of a person progressing to TB disease after infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) remains poorly understood, with some contacts developing TB in the…

Revisiting the Natural History of Pulmonary Tuberculosis: a Bayesian Estimation of Natural Recovery and Mortality rates

21/10/2019

Romain Ragonnet, Jennifer A Flegg, Samuel L Brilleman, Edine Tiemersma, Yayehirad A Melsew, Emma S McBryde, James M Trauer BioRxiv, 729426, 2019/1/1; Revisiting the Natural History of Pulmonary Tuberculosis: a Bayesian Estimation of Natural Recovery and Mortality rates   Background Tuberculosis (TB) natural history remains poorly characterised and new investigations are impossible as it would be…

Molecular Evidence of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in the Balimo Region of Papua New Guinea

21/10/2019

Tanya Diefenbach-Elstob, Vanina Guernier, Graham Burgess, Daniel Pelowa, Robert Dowi, Bisato Gula, Munish Puri, William Pomat, Emma McBryde, David Plummer, Catherine Rush, Jeffrey Warner Tropical medicine and infectious disease 4 (1), 33; Molecular Evidence of Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis in the Balimo Region of Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a high burden of tuberculosis…

Cross-Border Movement of Highly Drug-Resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis from Papua New Guinea to Australia through Torres Strait Protected Zone, 2010–2015

21/10/2019

Arnold Bainomugisa, Sushil Pandey, Ellen Donnan, Graham Simpson, J’Belle Foster, Evelyn Lavu, Stenard Hiasihri, Emma S McBryde, Rendi Moke, Steven Vincent, Vitali Sintchenko, Ben J Marais, Lachlan JM Coin, Christopher Coulter Emerging infectious diseases 25 (3), 406; Cross-Border Movement of Highly Drug-Resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis from Papua New Guinea to Australia through Torres Strait Protected Zone,…

Risk factors for multidrug‐resistant tuberculosis in northwest Ethiopia: A case–control study

21/10/2019

Kefyalew Addis Alene, Kerri Viney, Emma S McBryde, Darren J Gray, Mulugeta Melku, Archie CA Clements Transbound Emerg Dis. 2019 Jul;66(4):1611-1618. doi: 10.1111/tbed.13188. Epub 2019 Apr 15; Risk factors for multidrug‐resistant tuberculosis in northwest Ethiopia: A case–control study Ethiopia is one of 30-high burden multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) countries globally. The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of…

Community-based hepatitis C treatment of people who inject drugs and their injecting network is feasible and effective: Results from the TAP (Treatment And Prevention) study

21/10/2019

Joseph Doyle, Paul Dietze, Mark Stoove, Peter Higgs, Paul Desmond, David Iser, Emma Mcbryde, Brendan Harney, Alisa Pedrana, Tim Spelman, Sally Von Bibra, Janine Roney, Alexander Thompson, Margaret Hellard JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY 70, E495-E495; Community-based hepatitis C treatment of people who inject drugs and their injecting network is feasible and effective: Results from the TAP…

Global stability properties of a class of renewal epidemic models

21/10/2019

Michael T Meehan, Daniel G Cocks, Johannes Müller, Emma S McBryde Journal of mathematical biology 78 (6), 1713-1725; Global stability properties of a class of renewal epidemic models   We investigate the global dynamics of a general Kermack–McKendrick-type epidemic model formulated in terms of a system of renewal equations. Specifically, we consider a renewal model…

Treatment access is only the first step to hepatitis C elimination: experience of universal anti‐viral treatment access in Australia

21/10/2019

Joseph S Doyle, Nick Scott, Rachel Sacks‐Davis, Alisa E Pedrana, Alexander J Thompson, Margaret E Hellard, Eliminate Hepatitis C Partnership, Margaret Hellard, Alex Thompson, Joseph Doyle, Paul Dietze, Emma McBryde, William Sievert, Mark Stoove, Peter Higgs, Denis Petrie, Peter Vickerman Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics 49 (9), 1223-1229; Treatment access is only the first step to…

Health system preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: A synthesis of the literature

21/10/2019

Anna Palagyi, Ben J Marais, Seye Abimbola, Stephanie M Topp, Emma S McBryde, Joel Negin Global public health, 1-22; Health system preparedness for emerging infectious diseases: A synthesis of the literature This review reflects on what the literature to date has taught us about how health systems of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) respond to emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks. These findings…

Strategic Planning for Tuberculosis Control in the Republic of Fiji

21/10/2019

Romain Ragonnet, Frank Underwood, Tan Doan, Eric Rafai, James Trauer, Emma McBryde Tropical medicine and infectious disease 4 (2), 71; Strategic Planning for Tuberculosis Control in the Republic of Fiji The tuberculosis (TB) health burden in Fiji has been declining in recent years, although challenges remain in improving control of the diabetes co-epidemic and achieving…

On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics

21/10/2019

Michael T Meehan, Robert C Cope, Emma S McBryde arXiv preprint arXiv:1907.05010; On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics The rise of antimicrobial drug resistance is an imminent threat to global health that has warranted, and duly received, considerable attention within the medical, microbiological…

Mathematical analysis of a two-strain disease model with amplification

21/10/2019

Md Abdul Kuddus, Michael T Meehan, Adeshina I Adekunle, Lisa J White, Emma S McBryde arXiv preprint arXiv:1908.07837; Mathematical analysis of a two-strain disease model with amplification We investigate a two-strain disease model with amplification to simulate the prevalence of drug-susceptible (s) and drug-resistant (m) disease strains. We model the emergence of drug resistance as…

Delay effect and burden of weather-related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007–2012

21/10/2019

Md Abdul Kuddus, Emma S McBryde, Oyelola A Adegboye Scientific reports 9 (1), 1-13; Delay effect and burden of weather-related tuberculosis cases in Rajshahi province, Bangladesh, 2007–2012 Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially fatal infectious disease that continues to be a public health problem in Bangladesh. Each year in Bangladesh an estimated 70,000 people die of TB and 300,000 new cases are…

Modelling tuberculosis control priorities: more of the same will not do

21/10/2019

C Wejse, R Ragonnet, ES McBryde, JM Trauer The Lancet Global Health 7 (10), e1319; Modelling tuberculosis control priorities: more of the same will not do In The Lancet Global Health, Juan F Vesga and colleagues1 reported on their assessment of tuberculosis control priorities in high-burden settings using a robust and well accepted modelling approach…

Epidemiological analysis of association between lagged meteorological variables and pneumonia in wet-dry tropical North Australia, 2006–2016

21/10/2019

Oyelola A Adegboye, Emma S McBryde, Damon P Eisen Journal of exposure science & environmental epidemiology, 1-11; Epidemiological analysis of association between lagged meteorological variables and pneumonia in wet-dry tropical North Australia, 2006–2016 Pneumonia accounts for 1.5% of all overnight hospital admission in Australia. We investigated the nonlinear and delay effect of weather (temperature and rainfall) on pneumonia….

The role of super-spreading events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: evidence from contact tracing

21/10/2019

Yayehirad A Melsew, Manoj Gambhir, Allen C Cheng, Emma S McBryde, Justin T Denholm, Ee Laine Tay, James M Trauer BMC infectious diseases 19 (1), 244; The role of super-spreading events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: evidence from contact tracing In current epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), heterogeneity in infectiousness among TB patients is a challenge, which is not…

Mapping tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Ethiopia

21/10/2019

KA Alene, K Viney, DJ Gray, ES McBryde, M Wagnew, ACA Clements BMC infectious diseases 19 (1), 474; Mapping tuberculosis treatment outcomes in Ethiopia Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from an infectious disease in Ethiopia, killing more than 30 thousand people every year. This study aimed to determine whether the rates of…

High burden of infectious disease and antibiotic use in early life in Australian Aboriginal communities

06/02/2019

Will Cuningham  Jodie McVernon  Michael J. Lydeamore  Ross M. Andrews  Jonathan Carapetis  Therese Kearns  Danielle Clucas  Roslyn Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay  Steven Y.C. Tong  Patricia T. Campbell. High burden of infectious disease and antibiotic use in early life in Australian Aboriginal communities. First published: 06 February 2019 https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12876 Abstract Objective: To quantify the childhood infectious disease burden…

Sequential infection experiments for quantifying innate and adaptive immunity during influenza infection

23/11/2018

Ada W. C. Yan, Sophie G. Zaloumis, Julie A. Simpson, James M. McCaw. Sequential infection experiments for quantifying innate and adaptive immunity during influenza infection. arXiv:1709.02145 

Investigation of group A Streptococcus immune responses in an endemic setting, with a particular focus on J8

23/11/2018

Patricia Campbell, Hannah Frost, Pierre R. Smeesters, Joseph Kado, Michael F.Good, Michael Batzloff, Nicholas Geard, Jodie McVernon, Andrew Steer. Investigation of group A Streptococcus immune responses in an endemic setting, with a particular focus on J8. Volume 36, Issue 50, 29 November 2018, Pages 7618-7624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.10.091

The Importance of Heterogeneity to the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis

01/11/2018

James M Trauer, Peter J Dodd, M Gabriela M Gomes, Gabriela B Gomez, Rein MGJ Houben, Emma S McBryde, Yayehirad A Melsew, Nicolas A Menzies, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Sourya Shrestha, David W Dowdy. The Importance of Heterogeneity to the Epidemiology of Tuberculosis. Clinical infectious diseases https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-018-3388-y

Treatment for pharyngeal gonorrhoea under threat

01/11/2018

David G Regan, Ben B Hui, James G Wood, Helen Fifer, Monica M Lahra, David M Whiley. Treatment for pharyngeal gonorrhoea under threat. Lancet,Volume 18, Issue 11, P1175-1177, November 01, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30610-8

Designing group dose-response studies in the presence of transmission

23/10/2018

David J.Price a,b , Nigel G. Bean c,d , Joshua V. Ross c,d , Jonathan Tuke c,d. Designing group dose-response studies in the presence of transmission. Mathematical Biosciences, Volume 304,October 2018, Pages 62-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.07.007 .

An induced natural selection heuristic for finding optimal Bayesian experimental designs

22/10/2018

David J.Price a,b , Nigel G. Bean c,d , Joshua V. Ross c,d , Jonathan Tuke c,dAn induced natural selection heuristic for finding optimal Bayesian experimental designs. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Volume 126,October 2018, Pages 112-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2018.04.011

Methods used in the spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology: a systematic review

18/10/2018

Debebe Shaweno, Malancha Karmakar, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Romain Ragonnet, Archie CA Clements, James M. Trauer, Justin T. Denholm and Emma S. McBryde. Methods used in the spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology: a systematic review. BMC Medicine 2018 16:193. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-018-1178-4

Modelling the decline and future of hepatitis A transmission in Australia

13/10/2018

Jayasundara, D. , Hui, B. B., Regan, D. G., Heywood, A. E., MacIntyre, C. R. and Wood, J. G. Modelling the decline and future of hepatitis A transmission in Australia. J Viral Hepat. 13 October 2018. doi:10.1111/jvh.13018

Retrospective cost-effectiveness of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination program in Australia

08/10/2018

C.Chen a, P. Beutels b, J. Wood a, R. Menzies a, C.R. MacIntyre a, P. McIntyre c, A.T. Newall aRetrospective cost-effectiveness of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination program in Australia. Vaccine,Volume 36, Issue 42, 8 October 2018, Pages 6307-6313. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.08.084.

In silico investigation of the decline in clinical efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies due to increasing artemisinin and partner drug resistance

23/09/2018

Sophie G. Zaloumis, Pengxing Cao, Saber Dini, Miles P. Davenport, Deborah Cromer, David S. Khoury, Freya J.I. Fowkes, James M. McCaw,Julie A. Simpson. In silico investigation of the decline in clinical efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies due to increasing artemisinin and partner drug resistance. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy Sep 2018, AAC.01292-18; DOI: 10.1128/AAC.01292-18

The distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities

23/09/2018

Ada W.C.Yan a,b , Andrew J. Black c , James M. McCaw b,d,e , Nicolas Rebuli c , Joshua V. Ross c , Annalisa J. Swan a , Roslyn I. Hickson aThe distribution of the time taken for an epidemic to spread between two communities. Mathematical Biosciences, Volume 303, September 2018, Pages 139-147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.07.004

Characterization of Influenza B Virus Variants with Reduced Neuraminidase Inhibitor Susceptibility

10/09/2018

R. Farrukee, A. E. Zarebski, J. M. McCaw, J. D. Bloom, P. C. Reading, A. C. Hurt. Characterization of Influenza B Virus Variants with Reduced Neuraminidase Inhibitor Susceptibility. Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy Oct 2018, 62 (11) e01081-18; DOI: 10.1128/AAC.01081-18

Description of social contacts among student cases of pandemic influenza during the containment phase, Melbourne, Australia, 2009

09/09/2018

Caroline van Gemert, Emma S McBryde, Isabel Bergeri, Rachel Sacks-Davis, Hassan Vally, Tim Spelman, Brett Sutton, Margaret Hellard. Description of social contacts among student cases of pandemic influenza during the containment phase, Melbourne, Australia, 2009.Western Pac Surveill Response J. 2018 Sep;9(5). doi:10.5365/wpsar.2018.9.5.003

Cytokine biomarkers for the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection and disease in adults in a low prevalence setting

29/08/2018

Vanessa Clifford, Marc Tebruegge, Christel Zufferey, Susie Germano, Ben Forbes, Lucy Cosentino, Elizabeth Matchett, Emma McBryde, Damon Eisen, Roy Robins-Browne, Alan Street, Justin Denholm, Nigel Curtis. Cytokine biomarkers for the diagnosis of tuberculosis infection and disease in adults in a low prevalence setting. Tuberculosis, 25 August 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tube.2018.08.011

A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics

28/08/2018

Roberts, M.G., Hickson, R.I., McCaw, J.M. et al. A simple influenza model with complicated dynamics. J. Math. Biol. (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00285-018-1285-z

The Indo‐Papuan conduit: a biosecurity challenge for Northern Australia

08/08/2018

Paul F. Horwood , Emma S. McBryde , Dunstan Peniyamina , Scott A. Ritchie. The Indo‐Papuan conduit: a biosecurity challenge for Northern Australia. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, 42: 434-436. doi:10.1111/1753-6405.12808

Scabies and risk of skin sores in remote Australian Aboriginal communities: A self-controlled case series study

25/07/2018

Phyo Thu Zar Aung1 , Will Cuningham1,2, Kerry Hwang3 , Ross M. Andrews2,4, Jonathan R. Carpetis5 , Therese Kearns2 , Danielle Clucas6 , Jodie McVernon1,3,7, Julie Ann Simpson3 , Steven Y.C. Tong2,8, Patricia Therese Campbell1,7Scabies and risk of skin sores in remote Australian Aboriginal communities: A self-controlled case series study. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2018, 12(7):e0006668.

Measles control in Australia – threats, opportunities and future needs

16/07/2018

C. Raina MacIntyre, Elizabeth Kpozehouen, Mohana Kunasekaran, Kathleen Harriman, Stephen Conaty, Alexander Rosewell, Julian Druce, Nicolee Martin, Anita E. Heywood, Heather F. Gidding, James Wood, Sonya Nicholl. Measles control in Australia – threats, opportunities and future needs. Vaccine,Volume 36, Issue 30, 16 July 2018, Pages 4393-4398.. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.06.022

Appropriate comparisons of tuberculosis latency structures with empiric data

01/07/2018

Denholm JT, McBryde ES, Eisen D, Street A, Matchett E, Chen C, Shultz TR, Biggs B, Leder K. Appropriate comparisons of tuberculosis latency structures with empiric data. The Lancet, VOLUME 18, ISSUE 7, P720-721, JULY 01, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30339-6

The epidemiology of tuberculosis in the rural Balimo region of Papua New Guinea

19/06/2018

Tanya Diefenbach-Elstob, Patricia Graves, Robert Dowi, Bisato Gula, David Plummer, Emma McBryde, Daniel Pelowa, Peter Siba, William Pomat and Jeffrey Warner. The epidemiology of tuberculosis in the rural Balimo region of Papua New Guinea. 19 June 2018. https://doi.org/10.1111/tmi.13118

Australian rubella serosurvey 2012–2013: On track for elimination?

29/05/2018

Edirisuriya, C., Beard, F.H., Hendry, A.J., Dey, A., Gidding, H.F., Hueston, L., Dwyer, D.E., Wood, J.G., Macartney, K.K., McIntyre, P.B. Australian rubella serosurvey 2012–2013: On track for elimination? (2018) Vaccine, 36 (20), pp. 2794-2798.  DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.03.086

The influence of incomplete case ascertainment on measures of vaccine efficacy

17/05/2018

YueWu a, Julie A. Marsh a,b , Emma S. McBryde c , Thomas L. Snelling a,d,e,fThe influence of incomplete case ascertainment on measures of vaccine efficacy. Vaccine, Volume 36, Issue 21, 17 May 2018, Pages 2946-2952, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.04.046

Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia

08/05/2018

Lydeamore MJ1,2, Campbell PT2,3, Cuningham W3, Andrews RM4,5, Kearns T4, Clucas D6, Gundjirryirr Dhurrkay R4, Carapetis J7, Tong SYC 5,8, McCaw JM1, McVernon J2,3,9Calculation of the age of the first infection for skin sores and scabies in five remote communities in northern Australia 2018 May 8:1-8. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268818001061

Steps to solving the infant biometric problem with ridge-based biometrics

18/04/2018

Johannes Kotzerke1 , Stephen A. Davis1, Jodie McVernon2, Kathy J. Horadam1 . Steps to solving the infant biometric problem with ridge-based biometrics. (February 2018) IET Biometrics. doi: 10.1049/iet-bmt.2017.0282.

Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units

26/03/2018

Kinyanjui T, Middleton J, Guttel S, Cassell J, Ross J, House T (2018) Scabies in residential care homes: Modelling, inference and interventions for well-connected population sub-units. PLoS Comput Biol 14(3): e1006046. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006046

Modelling low pathogenic avian influenza introduction into the commercial poultry industry

23/03/2018

Barnes, B & Glass, K. Modelling low pathogenic avian influenza introduction into the commercial poultry industry, Mathematical Biosciences. vol. 300, pp. 112-121, 2018.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2018.03.021

Reducing length of stay to improve Clostridium difficile-related health outcomes

01/03/2018

Brain D.C., Barnett A.G., Yakob L., Clements A., Riley T.V., Halton K., Graves N. (2018) Reducing length of stay to improve Clostridium difficile-related health outcomes. Infection, Disease and Health. Published online ahead of print: DOI: 1016/j.idh.2018.01.001

Prolonged persistence of clonally diverse CD38+HLA-DR+CD8+ T cells during fatal H7N9 disease

26/02/2018

Wang Z, Zhu L, Nguyen THO, Wan Y, Sant S, Quinones-Parra SM, Crawford J, Eltahla AA, Rizzetto S, Bull RA, Qiu C, Koutsakos M, Bridie Clemens E, Loh L, Zhu L, Chen T, Liu L, Cao P, Ren Y, Kedzierski L, Kotsimbos TC, McCaw JM, La Gruta NL, Turner SJ, Cheng AC, Luciani F, Zhang X, Doherty PC, Thomas PG, Xu J, Kedzierska K, Prolonged persistence of clonally diverse CD38+HLA-DR+CD8+ T cells during fatal H7N9 disease, Nature Communications 9: 824 (2018).  doi:10.1038/s41467-018-03243-7

Coupled, multi-strain epidemic models of mutating pathogens

20/02/2018

Meehan M, Cocks D, Trauer J and McBryde E (2018) Coupled, multi-strain epidemic models of mutating pathogens. Mathematical Biosciences, 296. pp. 82-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2017.12.006

Implications of asymptomatic carriers for infectious disease transmission and control

14/02/2018

Chisholm RH, Campbell PT, Wu Y, Tong SYC, McVernon J, Geard N (2018) Implications of asymptomatic carriers for infectious disease transmission and controlRoyal Society Open Science 5:172341. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.172341

Evidence for Viral Interference and Cross-reactive Protective Immunity Between Influenza B Virus Lineages

30/01/2018

Laurie KL, Horman W, Carolan LA, Chan KF, Layton D, Bean A, Vijaykrishna D, Reading P, McCaw JM, Barr IG , Evidence for viral interference and cross-reactive protective immunity between influenza B virus lineages, Journal of Infectious Diseases 217(4): 548–559 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix509

Risk factors for infectiousness of patients with tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

17/01/2018

Y.A. Melsew (a1) (a2)T.N. Doan (a3) (a4)M. Gambhir (a1)A.C. Cheng (a1) (a5)E. McBryde (a3) (a4) and J.M. Trauer (a1). Risk factors for infectiousness of patients with tuberculosis: a systematic review and meta-analysisEpidemiology and Infection, 146(3), 345-353. doi:10.1017/S0950268817003041.

Optimally capturing latency dynamics in models of tuberculosis transmission

29/12/2017

Romain Ragonnet, James M.Trauer, Nick Scott, Michael T.Meehan, Justin T.Denholm, Emma S.McBryde. Optimally capturing latency dynamics in models of tuberculosis transmission. Epidemics,Volume 21, December 2017, Pages 39-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2017.06.002

Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration

27/12/2017

Robert Moss,1 James E. Fielding,2 Lucinda J. Franklin,3 Nicola Stephens,3 Jodie McVernon,1,2,4 Peter Dawson,5 James M. McCaw1,4,6Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2018 vol. 42 no. 1. https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12750

A Synthetic Population for Modelling the Dynamics of Infectious Disease Transmission in American Samoa

01/12/2017

Xu Z, Glass K, Lau C, Geard N, Graves P, Clements A (2017) A synthetic population for modelling the dynamics of infectious disease transmission in American SamoaScientific Reports 7:16725 doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17093-8

Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases

26/10/2017

Indigenous Australian household structure: a simple data collection tool and implications for close contact transmission of communicable diseases. Thiripura Vino 1 , Gurmeet R. Singh 2,3 , Belinda Davison 2 , Patricia T. Campbell 4,5 , Michael J. Lydeamore 4,5 , Andrew Robinson 1,6,7 , Jodie McVernon 5 , Steven Y.C. Tong 2,8 and Nicholas Geard9,10 . PeerJ October 2017 5:e3958; DOI 10.7717/peerj.3958

A Dynamic Stress Model Explains the Delayed Drug Effect in Artemisinin Treatment of Plasmodium falciparum

09/10/2017

Cao P, Klonis N, Zaloumis S, Dogovski C, Xie SC, Saralamba S, White LJ, Fowkes FJI, Tilley L, Simpson JA, McCaw JMA dynamic stress model explains the delayed drug effect in artemisinin treatment of Plasmodium falciparum, Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 61(12): e00618–17 (2017). doi:10.1128/AAC.00618-17

Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study

28/09/2017

Alexandra B.Hogana, Patricia T.Campbell b c , Christopher C. Blythdef, Faye J. Lime, Parveen Fathimae,  Stephanie Davisa, Hannah C. Mooree, Kathryn Glassa. Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study. Vaccine. 2017 Oct 27;35(45):6172-6179. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.09.043. Epub 2017 Sep 28.

Hybrid Markov chain models of S–I–R disease dynamics

14/09/2017

Hybrid Markov chain models of S–I–R disease dynamics. Nicholas P. Rebuli, N.G.Beanm J.V.Ross. Journal of Mathematical Biology September 2017, Volume 75 Issue 3, pp 52. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2735-8.

Modular programming for tuberculosis control, the “AuTuMN” platform

07/08/2017

James Trauer, Romain Ragonnet, Tan Nhut Doan and Emma McBryde. Modular programming for tuberculosis control, the “AuTuMN” platform. BMC Infectious Diseases BMC series 2017, 17:546. 7 August 2017. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-017-2648-6

Is Australia prepared for the next pandemic?

14/04/2017

Is Australia prepared for the next pandemic? Jodie McVernon, Tania C Sorrell, Jenny Firman, Brendan Murphy and Sharon R Lewin. Med J Aust 2017; 206 (7): 284-286. || doi: 10.5694/mja16.01451

High rates of latent TB infection in contacts and the wider community in South India

12/04/2017

High rates of latent tuberculosis infection in contacts and the wider community in South India. P Narasimhan, CR MacIntyre, D Mathai, JG Wood. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (accepted, Feb 2017).

Wilkinson et al. Respond to “Latent Transition Analyses in Clinical Cohorts”

10/03/2017

Wilkinson et al. Respond to “Latent Transition Analyses in Clinical Cohorts”. Wilkinson AL, El-Hayek C, Fairley CK, Roth N, Tee BK, McBryde E, Hellard M, Stoové M. Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Mar 10:1-2. doi: 10.1093/aje/kww238.

Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in north-west Ethiopia

03/03/2017

Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in north-west Ethiopia. Kefyalew Addis Alene, Kerri Viney, Emma S. McBryde, Adino Tesfahun Tsegaye, Archie C. A. Clements. Tropical Medicine and International Health. First published: 6 January 2017. Volume 22, Issue 3 March 2017, pages 351–362. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12826

Mycobacteria-specific IL-1RA response as a potential correlate of treatment success in active and latent tuberculosis infection

19/02/2017

Mycobacteria-specific IL-1RA response as a potential correlate of treatment success in active and latent tuberculosis infection. Vanessa Clifford, Marc Tebruegge, Christel Zufferey, Susie Germano, Ben Forbes, Lucy Cosentino, Elizabeth Matchett, Emma McBryde, Damon Eisen, Roy Robins-Browne, Alan Street, Justin Denholm, Nigel Curtis.  Pathology 49 (Feb 2017): S59.

The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains

24/01/2017

The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. Emma S. McBryde, Michael T. Meehan, Tan N. Doan, Romain Ragonnet, Ben J. Marais, Vanina Guernier, James M. Trauer. International Journal of Infectious Diseases Vol 56, P 14-20. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2017.01.031

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

10/01/2017

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting. Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Moss R, Infectious Disease Modelling. (accepted 16 December 2016) doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2016.12.004

Is IPT more effective in high-burden settings? Modelling the effect of tuberculosis incidence on IPT impact

01/01/2017

Is IPT more effective in high-burden settings? Modelling the effect of tuberculosis incidence on IPT impact. Ragonnet, R, Trauer J,  McBryde E,  Houben R. M. G. J, Denholm, J, Handel A, Sumner, T. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Volume 21, Nr 1, 1 January 2017, pp. 60-66(7). doi:10.5588/ijtld.16.0297

Heterogeneity of distribution of tuberculosis in Sheka Zone, Ethiopia: drivers and temporal trends

01/01/2017

Heterogeneity of distribution of tuberculosis in Sheka Zone, Ethiopia: drivers and temporal trends. Shaweno, D, Shaweno, T, Trauer J.M, Denholm J, McBryde, E. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Volume 21, Number 1, 1 January 2017, pp. 79-85(7)

On the role of CD8+ T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection

02/12/2016

Pengxing Cao1,  Zhongfang Wang 2, 3,  Ada W. Yan1, Jodie McVernon 4, 6, Jianqing Xu2,  Jane M. Heffernan5,  Katherine Kedzierska3 and  James M. McCaw1, 4, 6*, 

On the role of CD8+ T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection. Front. Immunol. | doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2016.00611.

Modelling the effect of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan

18/11/2016

Modelling the effect of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. James M. Trauer, Jay Achar, Nargiza Parpieva, Atadjan Khamraev, Justin T. Denholm, Dennis Falzon, Ernesto Jaramillo, Anita Mesic, Philipp du Cros and Emma S. McBryde BMC Medicine2016 14:187. doi: 10.1186/s12916-016-0723-2. Published: 18 November 2016

Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program

13/11/2016

Patricia Therese Campbell1,2, Jodie McVernon1,2,3, Peter McIntyre4, and Nicholas Geard1,Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program. Clinical Infectious Diseases Volume 63, Issue suppl 4Pp. S213-S220, doi: 10.1093/cid/ciw520.

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host

08/11/2016

Ada W. C. Yana , Pengxing Caoa , Jane M. Heffernan b,c, Jodie McVernond,e,f, Kylie M. Quinn g,h, Nicole L. La Grutag,h, Karen L. Laurie i,j,g, James M. McCaw a,e,f.Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host. Journal of Theoretical Biology. Accepted 2016 Nov 8.

A comparison of Clostridium difficile ribotypes circulating in Australian hospitals and communities

02/11/2016

Furuya-Kanamori L1, Riley TV2,3, Paterson DL4, Foster NF2,3, Huber CA4, Hong S2, Harris-Brown T4, Robson J5, Clements AC6. A comparison of Clostridium difficile ribotypes circulating in Australian hospitals and communities. J Clin Microbiol 2016; Epub ahead of print. doi:10.1128/JCM.01779-16

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models

06/10/2016

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models. Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas A Menzies, Tom Sumner, Grace H Huynh, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde, Anna Vassall, Richard G White, et al. Lancet Glob Health 2016;4: e806–15 Published Online October 6, 2016. doi.org/10.1016/ S2214-109X(16)30199-1

Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems

27/09/2016

R. MOSS (a1), A. ZAREBSKI (a2), P. DAWSON (a3) and J. M. McCAW (a1) (a2) (a4).Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systemsEpidemiology and Infection, 145(1), 156-169. doi:10.1017/S0950268816002053. Published online: 27 September 2016

Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

23/09/2016

Robert Moss, Roslyn I. Hickson, Jodie McVernon, James M. McCaw, Krishna Hort, Jim Black, John R. Madden, Nhi H. Tran, Emma S. McBryde, Nicholas Geard. Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2016 Sep 23;DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005018

Community-Acquired Clostridium difficile Infection, Queensland, Australia

22/09/2016

   Furuya-Kanamori L, Yakob L, Riley TV, Paterson DL, Baker P, McKenzie SJ, Robson J, Clements AC. Community-acquired Clostridium difficile infections in Queensland, Australia. Emerg Infect Dis 2016; 22(9):1659-61.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2209.151115

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonisation in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: A prospective, repeated cross-sectional study

08/09/2016

Furuya-Kanamori L1, Clements AC2, Foster NF3, Huber CA4, Hong S5, Harris-Brown T4, Yakob L6, Paterson DL4, Riley TV3.Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonisation in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: A prospective, repeated cross-sectional study. Clin Microb Infect 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.cmi.2016.08.030

Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity

27/08/2016

Tiffany Leung a, Barry D. Hughes a, Federico Frascoli b, James M. McCaw a, c, d,Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunityJournal of Theoretical Biology 410, December 2016, 55-64.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.034

Efficacy of a trivalent influenza vaccine against seasonal strains and against 2009 pandemic H1N1: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

09/08/2016

McBride WJH, Abhayaratna WP, Barr I, Booy R, Carapetis J, Carson S, De Looze F, Ellis-Pegler R, Heron L, Karrasch J, Marshall H, McVernon J, Nolan T, Rawlinson W, Reid J, Richmond P, Shakib S, Basser RL, Hartel GF, Lai MH, Rockman S, Greenberg ME. Efficacy of a trivalent influenza vaccine against seasonal strains and against 2009 pandemic H1N1: a randomized placebo-controlled trial. Vaccine 34 (2016) 4991–4997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.08.038. 

A role of influenza exposure history in determining pandemic susceptibility and CD8+ T cell responses

25/05/2016

Quinones-Parra S, Clemens B, Wang Z, Croom H, Kedzierski L, McVernon J, Vijaykrishna D, Kedzierska K. A role of influenza exposure history in determining pandemic susceptibility and CD8+ T cell responses. Journal of Virology, August 2016 vol. 90 no. 15 6936-6947. doi:10.1128/JVI.00349-16 Abstract Novel influenza viruses often cause differential infection patterns across different age groups, an effect…

Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia

25/05/2016

Alexandra B. Hogan a, Robert S. Anderssen b, Stephanie Davis a, Hannah C. Moore c, Faye J. Lim c, Parveen Fathima c, Kathryn Glass a.Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia. Epidemics 16 (2016) 49–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.001 Abstract Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes respiratory illness in young children and is…

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea

19/05/2016

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. James M. Trauer  Justin T. Denholm  Saba Waseem, Romain Ragonnet, Emma S. McBryde. Am J Epidemiol (2016) 183 (12): 1138-1148. doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv323. Published: 19 May 2016

Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children

04/05/2016

Alexandra B. Hogan , Kathryn Glass, Hannah C. Moore, Robert S. AnderssenExploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children. Theoretical Population Biology, May 2016. doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003

Feasibiliy of Recruiting People who Inject Drugs into a Nurse-Led Model of Care Trial: The Tap Study

19/04/2016

Feasibiliy of Recruiting People who Inject Drugs into a Nurse-Led Model of Care Trial: The Tap Study. S. von Bibra, J.S. Doyle, P. Higgs, P. Dietze, P. Desmond, M. Stoove, E. McBryde, L. Burke, J. Lupi, M. Bryant, A.J. Thompson, M.E. Hellard. Journal of Hepatology Vol 64-2. doi: 10.1016/S0168-8278(16)01598-1

Hepatic Fibrosis Measured by Elastography among People who Inject Drugs with Chronic HCV in Community Settings: The Tap Study

16/04/2016

Hepatic Fibrosis Measured by Elastography among People who Inject Drugs with Chronic HCV in Community Settings: The Tap Study. J.S. Doyle, P. Dietze, P. Desmond, D.M. Iser, M. Stoove, E. McBryde, P. Higgs, M.E. Hellard, A.J. Thompson. 16 April 2016: Viral hepatitis: Hepatitis C – Clinical (therapy). Journal of Hepatology, 2016 Vol 64-2. doi: 10.1016/S0168-8278(16)01526-9

Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models

18/03/2016

McKinley, T.J., Ross, J.V., Deardon, R. and Cook, A.R. (2014) Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 71, 434-447. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2012.12.012

Successful control of Ebola Virus Disease: analysis of service based data from rural Sierra Leone

09/03/2016

Lokuge K, Caleo G, Greig J, Duncombe J, McWilliam N, Squire J, Lamin M, Wolz A, Kobinger G,de la Vega M-A, Gbabai O, Nabieu S, Lamin M, Kremer R, Danis K, Banks E, Glass K. (2016) Successful control of Ebola Virus Disease: analysis of service based data from rural Sierra Leone. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 10(3):e0004498. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004498

Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%?

19/02/2016

Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%? James M. Trauer, Nompilo Moyo, Ee-Laine Tay, Katie Dale, Romain Ragonnet, Emma S. McBryde, Justin T. Denholm. Chest. 2016;149(2):516-525. doi:10.1016/j.chest.2015.11.017

25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations and Clostridium difficile Infection: A Meta-Analysis.

23/12/2015

Furuya-Kanamori L, Wangdi K, Yakob L, McKenzie SJ, Doi SA, Clark J, Paterson DL, Riley TV, Clements AC. 25-Hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and Clostridium difficile infection – A meta-analysis. JPEN Parenter Enter 2015; Epub ahead of print.DOI:10.1177/0148607115623457

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization: epidemiology and clinical implications

14/11/2015

Furuya-Kanamori L, Marquess J, Yakob L, Riley TV, Paterson DL, Foster NF, Huber C, Clements AC. Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization – Epidemiology and Clinical Implications. BMC Infect Dis2015; 15:516.DOI:10.1186/s12879-015-1258-4

Immune responses to a recombinant, four-component, meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in adolescents: a phase III, randomized, multicentre, lot-to-lot consistency study.

22/09/2015

Perrett, K.P., McVernon, J., Richmond, P.C., Marshall, H., Nissen, M., August, A., Percell, S., Toneatto, D., Nolan, T.: Immune responses to a recombinant, four-component, meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in adolescents: a phase III, randomized, multicentre, lot-to-lot consistency study.Vaccine, 2015; 33(39):5217-24. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.06.103

Modelled mechanisms of hypervirulent Clostridium difficile ribotype 027 displacement of endemic strains

28/07/2015

Yakob L., Riley T.V., Paterson D.L., Marquess J., Soares Magalhaes R., Furuya Kanamori L.,Clements A.C.A. (2015) Modelled mechanisms of hypervirulent Clostridium difficile ribotype 027 displacement of endemic strains. Scientific Reports. 5:12666. doi:  10.1038/srep12666

On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population models

23/07/2015

Bean, N.G., Elliott, R.J., Eshragh, A. and Ross, J.V. On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population modelsJournal of Applied Probability 52, 457-472doi:10.1239/jap/1437658609

Targeting the Cell Stress Response of Plasmodium falciparum to Overcome Artemisinin Resistance

22/04/2015

Dogovski C, Xie SC, Burgio G, Bridgford J, Mok S, McCaw JM, Chotivanich K, Kenny S, Gnadig N, Straimer J, Bozdech Z, Fidock DA, Simpson JA, Dondorp AM, Foote S, Klonis N, Tilley L, Targeting the cell stress response of plasmodium falciparum to overcome artemisinin resistance, PLoS Biology 13(4): e1002132 (2015). doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1002132

Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy

25/02/2015

Campbell PT, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy, Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics 11(3): 669-678 (2015). doi:10.1080/21645515.2015.1011575.

Computation of epidemic final size distributions

21/02/2015

Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2015)Computation of epidemic final size distributions.Journal of Theoretical Biology 367, 159-165.  doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.11.029

Predicting localised measles outbreak potential in Australia

22/01/2015

Wood, J. G., Heywood, A. E., Menzies, R. I., McIntyre, P. B., & MacIntyre, C. R. (2015). Predicting localised measles outbreak potential in Australia. Vaccine, 33(9), 1176-1181. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.12.071

Optimizing Hospital Infection Control: The Role of Mathematical Modeling

16/01/2015

Doan, Tan N, Kong, David, Kirkpatrick, Carl MJ, McBryde, Emma S. Optimizing Hospital Infection Control: The Role of Mathematical ModelingInfection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 35 / Issue 12 / December 2014, pp 1521-1530. dx.doi.org/10.1086/678596

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

06/01/2015

Ali H, Cameron E, Drovandi CC, McCaw JM, Guy RJ, Middleton M, El -Hayek C, Hocking JS, Kaldor JM, Donovan B, Wilson DP, on behalf of the Australian chlamydia incidence estimation group, A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence,Sexually Transmitted InfectionsSexually Transmitted Infections 91: 513-519 (2015).doi:10.1136/sextrans-2014-051631

Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia

18/12/2014

Cope, R.C., Cassey, P., Hugo, G.J. and Ross, J.V. (2014) Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia. PLoS Curents Outbreaks 2014 Dec 10. Edition 1. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.aa0375fd48a92c7c9422aa543a88711f.

The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs

24/10/2014

Hellard, Margaret; Rolls, David A; Sacks-Davis, Rachel; Robins, Garry; Pattison, Philippa; Higgs, Peter; Aitken, Campbell; McBryde, Emma; The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs, Hepatology Vol 60, 1861-1870 (2014).

Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: a model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future

14/09/2014

Gao, Z., Wood, J. G., Gidding, H. F., Newall, A. T., Menzies, R. I., Wang, H., . . . MacIntyre, C. R. (2015). Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: A model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future. Epidemiology and Infection, 143(7), 1467-1476. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002222

A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj

14/07/2014

Gardner LM; Rey D; Heywood AE; Toms R; Wood J; Travis Waller S; Raina MacIntyre C, 2014, ‘A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj’, Risk Analysis: an international journal, vol. 34, no. 8, pp. 1391 – 1400, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12253

Eradication of hepatitis C infection: the importance of targeting people who inject drugs

24/12/2013

Hellard, Margaret, Doyle, Joseph S, Sacks-Davis, Rachel, Thompson, Alexander J,McBryde, Emma. Eradication of hepatitis C infection: the importance of targeting people who inject drugs. Hepatology 2014 Vol 59 nr 2. 366-369, DOI: 10.1002/hep.26623