Publications

High rates of latent TB infection in contacts and the wider community in South India

12/04/2017

High rates of latent tuberculosis infection in contacts and the wider community in South India. P Narasimhan, CR MacIntyre, D Mathai, JG Wood. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (accepted, Feb 2017).


Wilkinson et al. Respond to “Latent Transition Analyses in Clinical Cohorts”

10/03/2017

Wilkinson et al. Respond to “Latent Transition Analyses in Clinical Cohorts”. Wilkinson AL, El-Hayek C, Fairley CK, Roth N, Tee BK, McBryde E, Hellard M, Stoové M. Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Mar 10:1-2. doi: 10.1093/aje/kww238.


Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in north-west Ethiopia

03/03/2017

Treatment outcomes in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in north-west Ethiopia. Kefyalew Addis Alene, Kerri Viney, Emma S. McBryde, Adino Tesfahun Tsegaye, Archie C. A. Clements. Tropical Medicine and International Health. First published: 6 January 2017. Volume 22, Issue 3 March 2017, pages 351–362. doi: 10.1111/tmi.12826


Mycobacteria-specific IL-1RA response as a potential correlate of treatment success in active and latent tuberculosis infection

19/02/2017

Mycobacteria-specific IL-1RA response as a potential correlate of treatment success in active and latent tuberculosis infection. Vanessa Clifford, Marc Tebruegge, Christel Zufferey, Susie Germano, Ben Forbes, Lucy Cosentino, Elizabeth Matchett, Emma McBryde, Damon Eisen, Roy Robins-Browne, Alan Street, Justin Denholm, Nigel Curtis.  Pathology 49 (Feb 2017): S59.


The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains

24/01/2017

The risk of global epidemic replacement with drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains. Emma S. McBryde, Michael T. Meehan, Tan N. Doan, Romain Ragonnet, Ben J. Marais, Vanina Guernier, James M. Trauer. International Journal of Infectious Diseases Vol 56, P 14-20. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2017.01.031

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting

10/01/2017

Model selection for seasonal influenza forecasting. Zarebski AE, Dawson P, McCaw JM, Moss R, Infectious Disease Modelling. (accepted 16 December 2016) doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2016.12.004


Is IPT more effective in high-burden settings? Modelling the effect of tuberculosis incidence on IPT impact

01/01/2017

Is IPT more effective in high-burden settings? Modelling the effect of tuberculosis incidence on IPT impact. Ragonnet, R, Trauer J,  McBryde E,  Houben R. M. G. J, Denholm, J, Handel A, Sumner, T. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Volume 21, Nr 1, 1 January 2017, pp. 60-66(7). doi:10.5588/ijtld.16.0297


Heterogeneity of distribution of tuberculosis in Sheka Zone, Ethiopia: drivers and temporal trends

01/01/2017

Heterogeneity of distribution of tuberculosis in Sheka Zone, Ethiopia: drivers and temporal trends. Shaweno, D, Shaweno, T, Trauer J.M, Denholm J, McBryde, E. The International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, Volume 21, Number 1, 1 January 2017, pp. 79-85(7)


On the role of CD8+ T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection

02/12/2016

Pengxing Cao1,  Zhongfang Wang 2, 3,  Ada W. Yan1, Jodie McVernon 4, 6, Jianqing Xu2,  Jane M. Heffernan5,  Katherine Kedzierska3 and  James M. McCaw1, 4, 6*, 

On the role of CD8+ T cells in determining recovery time from influenza virus infection. Front. Immunol. | doi: 10.3389/fimmu.2016.00611.

VACCINATION: A NUMBERS GAME THAT ADDS UP

18/11/2016

Jodie McVernon, Pursuit:WORLD-CHANGING RESEARCH MADE POSSIBLE BY MELBOURNE, 18 November 2016.

Modelling the effect of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan

18/11/2016

Modelling the effect of short-course multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment in Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. James M. Trauer, Jay Achar, Nargiza Parpieva, Atadjan Khamraev, Justin T. Denholm, Dennis Falzon, Ernesto Jaramillo, Anita Mesic, Philipp du Cros and Emma S. McBryde BMC Medicine2016 14:187. doi: 10.1186/s12916-016-0723-2. Published: 18 November 2016


Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program

13/11/2016

Patricia Therese Campbell1,2, Jodie McVernon1,2,3, Peter McIntyre4, and Nicholas Geard1,Influence of Population Demography and Immunization History on the Impact of an Antenatal Pertussis Program. Clinical Infectious Diseases Volume 63, Issue suppl 4Pp. S213-S220, doi: 10.1093/cid/ciw520.

Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host

08/11/2016

Ada W. C. Yana , Pengxing Caoa , Jane M. Heffernan b,c, Jodie McVernond,e,f, Kylie M. Quinn g,h, Nicole L. La Grutag,h, Karen L. Laurie i,j,g, James M. McCaw a,e,f.Modelling cross-reactivity and memory in the cellular adaptive immune response to influenza infection in the host. Journal of Theoretical Biology. Accepted 2016 Nov 8.

A comparison of Clostridium difficile ribotypes circulating in Australian hospitals and communities

02/11/2016

Furuya-Kanamori L1, Riley TV2,3, Paterson DL4, Foster NF2,3, Huber CA4, Hong S2, Harris-Brown T4, Robson J5, Clements AC6. A comparison of Clostridium difficile ribotypes circulating in Australian hospitals and communities. J Clin Microbiol 2016; Epub ahead of print. doi:10.1128/JCM.01779-16

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models

06/10/2016

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models. Rein M G J Houben, Nicolas A Menzies, Tom Sumner, Grace H Huynh, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Jeremy D Goldhaber-Fiebert, James M Trauer, Justin T Denholm, Emma S McBryde, Anna Vassall, Richard G White, et al. Lancet Glob Health 2016;4: e806–15 Published Online October 6, 2016. doi.org/10.1016/ S2214-109X(16)30199-1


Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systems

27/09/2016

R. MOSS (a1), A. ZAREBSKI (a2), P. DAWSON (a3) and J. M. McCAW (a1) (a2) (a4).Retrospective forecasting of the 2010–2014 Melbourne influenza seasons using multiple surveillance systemsEpidemiology and Infection, 145(1), 156-169. doi:10.1017/S0950268816002053. Published online: 27 September 2016

 

Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

23/09/2016

Robert Moss, Roslyn I. Hickson, Jodie McVernon, James M. McCaw, Krishna Hort, Jim Black, John R. Madden, Nhi H. Tran, Emma S. McBryde, Nicholas Geard. Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. 2016 Sep 23;DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005018

Community-Acquired Clostridium difficile Infection, Queensland, Australia

22/09/2016

   Furuya-Kanamori L, Yakob L, Riley TV, Paterson DL, Baker P, McKenzie SJ, Robson J, Clements AC. Community-acquired Clostridium difficile infections in Queensland, Australia. Emerg Infect Dis 2016; 22(9):1659-61.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2209.151115

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonisation in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: A prospective, repeated cross-sectional study

08/09/2016

Furuya-Kanamori L1, Clements AC2, Foster NF3, Huber CA4, Hong S5, Harris-Brown T4, Yakob L6, Paterson DL4, Riley TV3.Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonisation in two Australian tertiary hospitals, 2012-2014: A prospective, repeated cross-sectional study. Clin Microb Infect 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.cmi.2016.08.030

A User’s Guide to Infectious Disease Modelling

01/09/2016
A User’s Guide to Infectious Disease Modelling

This guide is intended as an introduction to interpreting the results of mathematical modelling studies in epidemiology. Such studies are increasingly used to support decision-making related to immunisation policy and the control of vaccine preventable diseases. The guide is designed to be read either in full or on a section by section basis, with these sections closely relating to the ordering of material in published modelling papers. Where it has been essential to use more technical terms to convey a precise message, these have been italicized to indicate inclusion in the attached glossary found on pages 24-26 of this document.

The guidance has been kept fairly general as we could not cover the large variety of specific details that appear in the literature. References for further reading are provided at the end of the document.

Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunity

27/08/2016

Tiffany Leung a, Barry D. Hughes a, Federico Frascoli b, James M. McCaw a, c, d,Periodic solutions in an SIRWS model with immune boosting and cross-immunityJournal of Theoretical Biology 410, December 2016, 55-64.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2016.08.034

Efficacy of a trivalent influenza vaccine against seasonal strains and against 2009 pandemic H1N1: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

09/08/2016

McBride WJH, Abhayaratna WP, Barr I, Booy R, Carapetis J, Carson S, De Looze F, Ellis-Pegler R, Heron L, Karrasch J, Marshall H, McVernon J, Nolan T, Rawlinson W, Reid J, Richmond P, Shakib S, Basser RL, Hartel GF, Lai MH, Rockman S, Greenberg ME. Efficacy of a trivalent influenza vaccine against seasonal strains and against 2009 pandemic H1N1: a randomized placebo-controlled trial. Vaccine 34 (2016) 4991–4997. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.08.038. 

Is the end of Zika nigh? How populations develop immunity

22/07/2016

The Zika outbreak, arriving on the heels of Ebola and just in time for the Rio Olympics, has challenged global health agencies to respond rapidly and effectively. Determining the appropriate response is far from straightforward, though, as there is much we don’t yet know about the Zika virus.

A pair of papers published recently in the journal Science have reviewed current evidence about the spread and control of Zika. These studies use mathematical models to help understand how the virus may spread.

Read the full article here.

Computing helps the study of infections on a global and local scale

06/06/2016

Millions of people suffer each year from infectious diseases which are responsible for about a quarter of all deaths worldwide. But tracking the cause of such illness and trying to avoid their spread is always a challenge.

Read the full article here.

A role of influenza exposure history in determining pandemic susceptibility and CD8+ T cell responses

25/05/2016

Quinones-Parra S, Clemens B, Wang Z, Croom H, Kedzierski L, McVernon J, Vijaykrishna D, Kedzierska K. A role of influenza exposure history in determining pandemic susceptibility and CD8+ T cell responses. Journal of Virology, August 2016 vol. 90 no. 15 6936-6947. doi:10.1128/JVI.00349-16 Abstract Novel influenza viruses often cause differential infection patterns across different age groups, an effect…

Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia

25/05/2016

Alexandra B. Hogan a, Robert S. Anderssen b, Stephanie Davis a, Hannah C. Moore c, Faye J. Lim c, Parveen Fathima c, Kathryn Glass a.Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia. Epidemics 16 (2016) 49–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2016.05.001 Abstract Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes respiratory illness in young children and is…

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea

19/05/2016

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. James M. Trauer  Justin T. Denholm  Saba Waseem, Romain Ragonnet, Emma S. McBryde. Am J Epidemiol (2016) 183 (12): 1138-1148. doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv323. Published: 19 May 2016


Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children

04/05/2016

Alexandra B. Hogan , Kathryn Glass, Hannah C. Moore, Robert S. AnderssenExploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children. Theoretical Population Biology, May 2016. doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2016.04.003

Feasibiliy of Recruiting People who Inject Drugs into a Nurse-Led Model of Care Trial: The Tap Study

19/04/2016

Feasibiliy of Recruiting People who Inject Drugs into a Nurse-Led Model of Care Trial: The Tap Study. S. von Bibra, J.S. Doyle, P. Higgs, P. Dietze, P. Desmond, M. Stoove, E. McBryde, L. Burke, J. Lupi, M. Bryant, A.J. Thompson, M.E. Hellard. Journal of Hepatology Vol 64-2. doi: 10.1016/S0168-8278(16)01598-1


 

Hepatic Fibrosis Measured by Elastography among People who Inject Drugs with Chronic HCV in Community Settings: The Tap Study

16/04/2016

Hepatic Fibrosis Measured by Elastography among People who Inject Drugs with Chronic HCV in Community Settings: The Tap Study. J.S. Doyle, P. Dietze, P. Desmond, D.M. Iser, M. Stoove, E. McBryde, P. Higgs, M.E. Hellard, A.J. Thompson. 16 April 2016: Viral hepatitis: Hepatitis C – Clinical (therapy). Journal of Hepatology, 2016 Vol 64-2. doi: 10.1016/S0168-8278(16)01526-9


Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models

18/03/2016

McKinley, T.J., Ross, J.V., Deardon, R. and Cook, A.R. (2014) Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 71, 434-447. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2012.12.012

Successful control of Ebola Virus Disease: analysis of service based data from rural Sierra Leone

09/03/2016

Lokuge K, Caleo G, Greig J, Duncombe J, McWilliam N, Squire J, Lamin M, Wolz A, Kobinger G,de la Vega M-A, Gbabai O, Nabieu S, Lamin M, Kremer R, Danis K, Banks E, Glass K. (2016) Successful control of Ebola Virus Disease: analysis of service based data from rural Sierra Leone. Plos Neglected Tropical Diseases 10(3):e0004498. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004498

Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%?

19/02/2016

Risk of Active Tuberculosis in the Five Years Following Infection . . . 15%? James M. Trauer, Nompilo Moyo, Ee-Laine Tay, Katie Dale, Romain Ragonnet, Emma S. McBryde, Justin T. Denholm. Chest. 2016;149(2):516-525. doi:10.1016/j.chest.2015.11.017


25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations and Clostridium difficile Infection: A Meta-Analysis.

23/12/2015

Furuya-Kanamori L, Wangdi K, Yakob L, McKenzie SJ, Doi SA, Clark J, Paterson DL, Riley TV, Clements AC. 25-Hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and Clostridium difficile infection – A meta-analysis. JPEN Parenter Enter 2015; Epub ahead of print.DOI:10.1177/0148607115623457

Explainer: what is herd immunity?

10/12/2015

The recent outbreak of chickenpox in a Melbourne primary school is a reminder that even in a country like Australia where immunisation rates are high, children and adults are still at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases.

Outbreaks such as this one occur from time to time for two main reasons. Read the full article here.

Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization: epidemiology and clinical implications

14/11/2015

Furuya-Kanamori L, Marquess J, Yakob L, Riley TV, Paterson DL, Foster NF, Huber C, Clements AC. Asymptomatic Clostridium difficile colonization – Epidemiology and Clinical Implications. BMC Infect Dis2015; 15:516.DOI:10.1186/s12879-015-1258-4

Immune responses to a recombinant, four-component, meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in adolescents: a phase III, randomized, multicentre, lot-to-lot consistency study.

22/09/2015

Perrett, K.P., McVernon, J., Richmond, P.C., Marshall, H., Nissen, M., August, A., Percell, S., Toneatto, D., Nolan, T.: Immune responses to a recombinant, four-component, meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) in adolescents: a phase III, randomized, multicentre, lot-to-lot consistency study.Vaccine, 2015; 33(39):5217-24. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.06.103

Why predicting a flu outbreak is like betting on football or flipping a coin

11/08/2015

We humans have an innate tendency to recognise patterns. This ability has helped us survive by learning important skills such as how to distinguish danger (predators and poisonous plants, for instance) from important resources (food sources and safe shelter) and knowing the right time of year to plant crops.

But the same ability can sometimes convince us we’re seeing a meaningful pattern when it isn’t there.

Read the full article here.

Modelled mechanisms of hypervirulent Clostridium difficile ribotype 027 displacement of endemic strains

28/07/2015

Yakob L., Riley T.V., Paterson D.L., Marquess J., Soares Magalhaes R., Furuya Kanamori L.,Clements A.C.A. (2015) Modelled mechanisms of hypervirulent Clostridium difficile ribotype 027 displacement of endemic strains. Scientific Reports. 5:12666. doi:  10.1038/srep12666

On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population models

23/07/2015

Bean, N.G., Elliott, R.J., Eshragh, A. and Ross, J.V. On binomial observations of continuous-time Markovian population modelsJournal of Applied Probability 52, 457-472doi:10.1239/jap/1437658609

 

Health Check: when are we most likely to catch viral diseases?

06/07/2015

Viruses have been described as “organisms at the edge of life”, unable to reproduce outside the cells of those they infect. But this status has not impeded their evolutionary success. Children, in particular, experience a multitude of viral illnesses during their early years, which gradually reduce over time as their natural immunity develops.

Viral infections may be fleeting (think influenza) or chronic (HIV, for instance), affecting various parts of the body to cause a diverse array of symptoms. These differences have important implications for the spread of that particular viral disease.

Read full article here.

Targeting the Cell Stress Response of Plasmodium falciparum to Overcome Artemisinin Resistance

22/04/2015

Dogovski C, Xie SC, Burgio G, Bridgford J, Mok S, McCaw JM, Chotivanich K, Kenny S, Gnadig N, Straimer J, Bozdech Z, Fidock DA, Simpson JA, Dondorp AM, Foote S, Klonis N, Tilley L, Targeting the cell stress response of plasmodium falciparum to overcome artemisinin resistance, PLoS Biology 13(4): e1002132 (2015). doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1002132

Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy

25/02/2015

Campbell PT, McCaw JM, McVernon J, Pertussis models to inform vaccine policy, Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics 11(3): 669-678 (2015). doi:10.1080/21645515.2015.1011575.

Computation of epidemic final size distributions

21/02/2015

Black, A.J. and Ross, J.V. (2015)Computation of epidemic final size distributions.Journal of Theoretical Biology 367, 159-165.  doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.11.029

Predicting localised measles outbreak potential in Australia

22/01/2015

Wood, J. G., Heywood, A. E., Menzies, R. I., McIntyre, P. B., & MacIntyre, C. R. (2015). Predicting localised measles outbreak potential in Australia. Vaccine, 33(9), 1176-1181. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.12.071

Optimizing Hospital Infection Control: The Role of Mathematical Modeling

16/01/2015

Doan, Tan N, Kong, David, Kirkpatrick, Carl MJ, McBryde, Emma S. Optimizing Hospital Infection Control: The Role of Mathematical ModelingInfection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 35 / Issue 12 / December 2014, pp 1521-1530. dx.doi.org/10.1086/678596

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

06/01/2015

Ali H, Cameron E, Drovandi CC, McCaw JM, Guy RJ, Middleton M, El -Hayek C, Hocking JS, Kaldor JM, Donovan B, Wilson DP, on behalf of the Australian chlamydia incidence estimation group, A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence,Sexually Transmitted InfectionsSexually Transmitted Infections 91: 513-519 (2015).doi:10.1136/sextrans-2014-051631

Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia

18/12/2014

Cope, R.C., Cassey, P., Hugo, G.J. and Ross, J.V. (2014) Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia. PLoS Curents Outbreaks 2014 Dec 10. Edition 1. doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.aa0375fd48a92c7c9422aa543a88711f.

The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs

24/10/2014

Hellard, Margaret; Rolls, David A; Sacks-Davis, Rachel; Robins, Garry; Pattison, Philippa; Higgs, Peter; Aitken, Campbell; McBryde, Emma; The impact of injecting networks on hepatitis C transmission and treatment in people who inject drugs, Hepatology Vol 60, 1861-1870 (2014).

Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: a model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future

14/09/2014

Gao, Z., Wood, J. G., Gidding, H. F., Newall, A. T., Menzies, R. I., Wang, H., . . . MacIntyre, C. R. (2015). Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: A model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future. Epidemiology and Infection, 143(7), 1467-1476. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002222

A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj

14/07/2014

Gardner LM; Rey D; Heywood AE; Toms R; Wood J; Travis Waller S; Raina MacIntyre C, 2014, ‘A scenario-based evaluation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and the Hajj’, Risk Analysis: an international journal, vol. 34, no. 8, pp. 1391 – 1400, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12253

Eradication of hepatitis C infection: the importance of targeting people who inject drugs

24/12/2013

Hellard, Margaret, Doyle, Joseph S, Sacks-Davis, Rachel, Thompson, Alexander J,McBryde, Emma. Eradication of hepatitis C infection: the importance of targeting people who inject drugs. Hepatology 2014 Vol 59 nr 2. 366-369, DOI: 10.1002/hep.26623

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